Rep. James Comer (R.-Ky.), addresses the Fancy Farm Picnic audience in Fancy Farm Ky. on Saturday, August 3, 2019. Timothy D. Easley/AP PhotoIn cities throughout the Midwest and upper South, this kind of redistricting debate about how aggressively Republicans should eliminate Democratic enclaves remaining in red states is taking place. Local Republicans might be more inclined than others to create those blue pockets, as they are eager to increase their congressional numbers and serve as launching points for ambitious state legislators. Others in the GOP are more wary of a sudden and unpredictable political realignment, which could complicate the drawing of new maps and threaten the legal behemoth Democrats have created to counter them.Some Republicans are now being questioned about the unabashed partisan gerrymandering that became commonplace after 2010. Top party strategists urge state mapmakers not to be reckless and draw lines that can withstand lawsuits and demographic change over the next decade."Pigs get fat," is an old saying. Rep. Patrick McHenry, R-N.C., stated that hogs are slaughtered. "And redistricting is the same."Apart from Yarmuth in Louisville Republicans will have to think about whether they want to go after Rep. Jim Cooper (D.Tenn.), in Nashville; Reps. Sharice Daves (D.Kan.) or Emanuel Cleaver, (D.Mo.). Kansas City, on both sides of border. Perhaps even freshman Rep. Frank Mrvan. In northwest Indiana. Potentially, also on the chopping blocks: Omaha. The "cracking" of Omaha could help Rep. Don Bacon (R. Neb.). In one of the nation's most swingiest seats.As he leaves a classified briefing for the House Armed Services Committee, Don Bacon talks to reporters. Drew Angerer/Getty ImagesTheir decisions will determine the balance of power in Congress over the next five years. Because Nebraska is split by congressional district changes, it could even influence the 2024 or 2028 presidential contests.Interviews with almost two dozen GOP legislators and strategists in those six states revealed a frenzy of ongoing discussions about whether or not to make incremental or wholesale changes to the new maps. Some legislators are more interested in challenging the status quo than others.In Washington, D.C., it was caution.Adam Kincaid was the top redistricting strategist for the House GOP. He presented to the retreat in Florida earlier in the year. However, he cautioned against going too far.Kincaid stated in a recent interview that smart people are the best. You don't have to be able to do it, just because you could.The warning was echoed by the audience at his presentation.Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.) said that "We learned a hard lesson" in North Carolina's and Pennsylvania's last elections. He was referring to two states whose GOP-drawn maps were invalidated by state courts mid-decade. Democrats gained several House seats with the new lines. "They stretched the rubber too far."Cole, the House Rules Committee's top Republican, said that Cole was "not to be forgotten again". He added, "You get too greedy and then you have an election where you lose four or five seats instead of losing a few."This math is top-of-mind for Missouri's GOP legislators, where Republicans control six of eight state districts. The Voting Rights Act protects the seat of Democratic Rep. Cori Buss in St. Louis. But Cleavers is not protected in Kansas City. His district could give Republicans a 7-1 edge in the state by cracking.James Harris, a Missouri veteran operative who advised the state legislature in redistricting issues in the past, said that "the challenge there is: four to five of the Republican incumbents will have to accept a 3 to 5% reduction in the Republican base." He stated that he does not feel any desire to see Cleaver die from Jefferson City legislators: "There is a scenario where you could end up with a 5-3-2 makeup as opposed to always having a 6-2 map."Democrats remain on guard. Cleaver stated that several Missouri attorneys approached him to represent him in redistricting litigation if his district changes.Nashville is the most likely city where Republicans will splice between a few districts, putting Cooper's chances of being reelected in serious jeopardy.Cooper spoke in a short interview outside the House chamber and said that he believed the outcome was "probable" because of the GOP's desire to end the Democrats' narrow majority at Congress. This will reduce to three seats next summer. "Do the math."He said, "Don't be innocent about it." He said, "What can you do to stop them?" They have a supermajority. They have a supermajority of three votes.Republicans have used cracking cities to discredit Democratic voters in the past.The splintered Cincinnati has kept GOP Rep. Steve Chabot safe from the Democratic wave in 2018. All four Utah seats remain red in good years because of the splicing of Salt Lake City. The cracking of Greensboro, North Carolina gave Rep. Mark Walker a seat until a court redrawn the map in 2019.Rep. Steve Chabot (R.Ohio), speaks at a Price Hill Chili campaign event on Sept. 17. John Minchillo/AP PhotoHowever, the Trump era's political climate has made it difficult to predict how certain areas will perform in 2022. The suburbs are now dominated by deep red seats. Some blue seats, particularly those in Latino-majority areas, have also moved to the GOP.It's hard to predict," Kincaid, who is the executive director for the National Republican Redistricting Trust, said. We don't know where our future will take us in four years, let alone eight. It seems like there is more awareness now of this than ever before.Meanwhile, Democrats have pledged to be as aggressive in court as possible, even for those districts that are not covered under the Voting Rights act, but which still divide certain communities.Eric Holder, the former Attorney General, is leading the National Democratic Redistricting Committee. He has amassed large amounts of money and an army lawyers ready to attack Republican-drawn maps. The kind of packing and cracking required to divide cities could be in violation of federal and state laws. Kelly Ward Burton, president of the group, stated that there are many arguments and tools available to us to fight back.She said that "we are ready for everything and we do not expect them to be timid" because they feel an existential threat from voters.The Nebraska Democrats have enough seats in the unicameral legislature to launch a filibuster against any GOP-drawn map. Only the one congressional district that includes Omaha and the surrounding Douglas County is viable is the competitive one.A map that fractures Omaha could lead to a new, reliably Republican seat. The state's ever-present urban-rural division may make it difficult."That wouldn't fly because you still wish to preserve the communities of interests and whatnot," stated Scott Lautenbaugh (ex-State Senator), who was responsible for Nebraska's redistricting process in 2011. "It is difficult to justify dividing up Omaha without compelling reasons."He admitted that the legislature could make a different decision, but he said, "It would only my guess, at present point because I haven’t really spoken to them about it."The split of the Indiana seat held by Rep. Andr. Carson in Indianapolis, a major metropolitan area, would likely endanger many of the seats around it. It would be possible to target Gary's other Democratic district by flooding it with red counties.Redistricting is mostly a parochial matter. Maps are often drawn by local legislators, who may not be as responsive to federal delegation requests or national party strategists. This is especially true for state legislators who want to be in Congress.Democrats were furious that Chris Croft (chair of Kansas's redistricting commission) is openly considering running against Davids in Kansas City. In Tennessee, Beth Harwell, the former Speaker of the Tennessee State House, expressed interest in a new, GOP-friendly district in Nashville.In Kentucky, however, it appears that the Senate's top Republican would have a significant influence. According to those familiar with the conversations, McConnell made it clear to mapmakers that he believes Yarmuth should retain his seat.Rep. Brett Guthrie (R-Ky.), stated that "His advice to them was: Louisville is its separate entity and he's originally from Louisville so let them have someone in Congress to represent Louisville."He added, "We are not trying to get rid John."
