The latest evidence demonstrates the extreme dangers that low-income communities and communities of color face from climate change. Experts who studied the U.S. Latino community and settlement trends have found that the combination of low housing prices and increased Latino population growth has led people living in remote areas to be more vulnerable to wildfires.
The West is experiencing the worst drought in 100 years, and the heat waves have caused a worsening of wildfires. Officials are now reviewing land-use planning, forest management and emergency outreach efforts as well as housing and climate policies in light of the increased risk.
Wildfire risks are already rising in the West. If it's any like last year, we won't be talking about billions of dollars. Gina McCarthy, White House National Climate Adviser, said last week that there have been deaths and asthma as a result of the smoke, toxins, and fires.
According to the National Interagency Fire Center, this year has seen more than 30,000 fires that have destroyed nearly 1.5 million acres. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, most of the Western U.S. are experiencing moderate-to exceptional drought that has dried out vegetation which provides fuel for these fires. This year, more acres were burned than in 2020. In that time, 17,904 structures burned. 54 percent of these structures were homes.
2020 was an intense wildfire season. Jennifer Balch, a University of Colorado fire scientist, stated that it was making her nervous. We must be prepared.
According to risQ, Latino residents are attracted to areas with high wildfire risk because of ballooning housing costs.
Two climate change scenarios were run by the firm. They used a U.S. Forest Service simulation model to assess dryness and wildfire behavior, and also included insurance losses, U.S. Census statistics and mapping.
Based on wildfires' severity, probability and potential property loss, risQ's model gave scores of 0-5 to counties, census tracts, and school districts in the U.S. A score of 3 or more represented the 12 per cent of counties that had a high risk designation. These counties accounted for $46 million in insured losses between 1990 and 2020.
The risQ data shows that the Latino population of areas with high wildfire risks rose by 223% between 2010-2019, compared to areas without wildfire danger. This indicates that Latinos moved to those areas, while white populations in those areas decreased by 32 percent. The median Latino population in areas with scores of 3 and 4, which indicate high or extreme risk, grew by 37 percent and 87 percent respectively over the same period. While the white population declined by 27 percent and 12 percent, respectively.
There were no statistically significant differences in the numbers of Black, Asian American, and Indigenous people.
Rep. Tony Crdenas was not surprised by the findings. The California Democrat, who was a Los Angeles-area realty broker in the past, said that his majority-Latino clients often chose housing "bargains” in wildfire-prone regions because they did not have the financial resources to relocate in a safer area.
"Many of the most hardworking people in town work in restaurants. They work in industry. Crdenas stated that you are basically the minimum wage industry. They'll go to wherever they can afford. Unfortunately, these are the same factors that make them want to live in those areas, in those homes, and they're more vulnerable to being burned.
According to Demographers, many Latino residents have moved to the hinterlands to find cheaper land and less-accessible services such as firefighting.
McCarthy stated that the Biden administration is conscious of the adverse effect climate change has had on communities of color. They will be looking at ways to increase response to wildfires to make sure they are not as widespread.
Last year, wildfires ravaged Latino communities in Washington and Oregon. This year's drought and record-breaking temperatures have caused the area to reopen. The flames engulfed homes and mobile home parks, causing severe damage to farmworkers whose annual average wages are below $20,000 According to the Oregon Office of Emergency Management, more than 4,000 Oregon homes were destroyed by fires last year.
So-called natural amenity community, which are built around winter sports, resorts, and second homes, began to attract Latino residents in 2000 to work in service industry jobs that supported these burgeoning communities, according Richelle Winkler, a sociology professor at Michigan Technological University, who has studied residential segregation, migration, and the environment. However, Latinos tended to settle in rural areas that are less expensive and more prone to wildfires than those towns.
Affordable housing programs are the number one priority. She said that affordable housing programs are the number one priority. This is the root cause of all environmental justice problems, and it's very specific in this case.
According to Beatriz Soto (director of Defiende Nuestra Tierra, a public lands advocacy group based in Carbondale, Colo., Wilderness Workshop), people who work in landscaping, housekeeping, and other jobs in the Western Colorado resort areas of the Roaring fork, Colorado River, and Eagle valleys, often live in high risk areas that are two to three hours away from their jobs because they lack affordable housing. Many people live in mobile homes without water access and rely on electric heaters to keep them warm, which can pose a fire hazard.
She said it was extremely dangerous.
Soto stated that local officials in wealthy towns such as Aspen and Snowmass have not succumbed to pressure to create affordable housing. They don't want their neighbor to clean their house.
To accommodate the increasing population, more homes are being built on unoccupied land that borders forests and woodlands. According to the U.S. Fire Administration, these areas are home to 46 million people and grow at an average rate of 2 million acres each year. This housing boom is 49.4% higher than the 30.8 million homes in 1990. This has increased the risk for property and people, while increasing wildfire likelihood: According to the National Interagency Fire Center, humans start 87 per cent of all wildfires.
However, wildfires have not stopped construction. risQ discovered that 37 percent of all U.S. permits for single-family homes were in the top quartile in wildfire-prone states in 2019. This is up from 30% in 2010.
People are aware of the risks, and that's been a wake up call for ecologists like me, stated Volker Radeloff (a University of Wisconsin-Madison fire ecologist).
Analysis by risQs showed that wildfires already have significant economic consequences. Single-family home losses reach $13 billion annually in current climate conditions. They are expected to rise to $14 billion per year by 2050 if greenhouse gases emissions continue to increase. However, losses remained constant even in a scenario that experienced half the warming of the worst-case scenario. Evan Kodra, CEO of risQ, said there was a clear tradeoff between reducing emissions and preserving natural resources.
As wildfires become more common, it is becoming more difficult to escape them. Radeloff from Wisconsin noted that Southern California's shrubby chaparral is now being burned every five years, as opposed to the 60-70 year frequency. This creates space for invasive grasses and flammable fast-growing grasses.
According to Erin Hanan (a University of Nevada-Reno fire ecologist), climate change is also drying out wetter regions like dense Pacific Northwest forest. Warmer and more arid climates are melting mountain snowpack faster, which is reducing the time it takes for the waters to flow through the region. This means that trees that depend on these flows are drying faster at higher temperatures. It also creates fuel for ignition.
Hanan stated that wildfire-prone areas are expanding and housing options are becoming scarcer, forcing people into more dangerous living arrangements.
She said that many people believe that they are trying to live in the [wildland–urban interface]. It is not an option for many.
Climate change is also rapidly increasing, strengthening and expanding wildfires in new areas that were previously unaffected by the threat. The new challenge is to determine where people are moving, and whether infernos will reach those areas as well.
Balch, University of Colorado, stated that we don't have a good handle on vulnerable populations right now in terms of where they live relative wildfires. In the fire space, science must catch up.