Hurricane season 2021: How long it lasts and what to expect

Iota was the final storm of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. It was also the season's 30th named storm and the season's thirteenth hurricane. It was rated Category 5 on November 16, 2020.Hurricane season in the Atlantic brings with it a variety of dangerous and dramatic weather conditions, including torrential downpours and whipping winds.What time does Atlantic hurricane season begin and last for? What can people do to be prepared for the worst storms? We'll cover everything you need to know about the hurricane season, including hurricane naming conventions and staying safe during a storm. The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season will bring more activity than average, which could mean more severe storms.What is a hurricane?Tropical cyclones are hurricanes. A tropical cyclone is a storm that has sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph (63-118 km/h). It gets its name from the World Meteorological Organization. A Category 1 hurricane is formed when sustained winds reach 74-95 mph (119-153 km/h). Here are the sustained winds for hurricanes in categories 2-5 according to the Saffir-Simpson Scale:Category 2: 96-110 mph (154-177 km/h).Category 3: 111 - 129 mph (178 - 208 km/h).Category 4: 130 - 156 mph (209 - 251 km/h).Category 5: 157 mph (or higher) (252 km/h, or higher).2021 Named StormsNamed storms, hurricanes and tropical storms for 2021Tropical storm Ana: May 22nd, northeast of BermudaTropical storm Bill: June 14, southeast Halifax, Nova ScotiaTropical storm Claudette, June 17, Gulf CoastTropical storm Danny: June 28 makes landfall north of Hilton Head, South Carolina on Pritchards Island.Hurricane Elsa: July 2, eastern Caribbean, Category 1 hurricaneHow do hurricanes form?NASA says hurricanes are the most destructive storms on Earth. Hurricanes are powered by heat and water. Hurricanes are created by the warm waters over the Equator. This is where the atmosphere above the ocean's surface absorbs heat and moisture. The hot air rises and leaves the lower pressure area below. NASA says that this process continues as higher pressure air moves into lower pressure areas, heats up and rises, causing swirls in the atmosphere. When the hot air reaches high enough in the atmosphere, it cools down and condenses into cloud. The swirling vortex of clouds and air grows larger and more intense, and it can eventually become a thunderstorm.Warmer waters in the Atlantic Ocean are the most important conditions for hurricanes."When the water is warmer it means that you have lower pressures. This means that the atmosphere is more unstable, which can lead to hurricanes intensifying," stated Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University, an atmospheric scientist. These thunderstorms, which are the building blocks for hurricanes, are more organized and able to get moving."Klotzbach also mentioned wind shear. This is the difference in wind direction and height that affects the atmosphere. Klotzbach explained to Live Science that wind shear is lower when there's a tropical Atlantic. "When there is a lot wind shear, it basically tears apart the hurricane."NASA reports that storms that form on opposite sides of the Equator can have different spin orientations due to Earth's slight tilt.Hurricanes and climate patternsEl Nio is associated to above-average equatorial ocean-surface temperatures. The November 2015 map shows El Nio's warmth signature. (Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory maps, Joshua Stevens using data from Coral Reef Watch.However, the individual components of hurricanes don't appear randomly. They are controlled by larger weather systems. Gerry Bell, the leading seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, Washington, D.C., stated that there are two dominant climate patterns which really control wind and pressure patterns across Atlantic.The El Nio/La Nia cycle is the first. Bell stated that El Nio is a period in which the ocean water around South America's northwestern coast becomes warmer than normal. This causes Atlantic hurricanes to be suppressed. La Nia, on the other hand, creates favorable conditions for hurricanes.Bell stated that the second climate pattern is called the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. This is a trend that lasts anywhere between 25 and 40 years. It is associated with warmer water in the Atlantic and stronger African Monsoons.Bell explained to Live Science that when the pattern is in its warm phase (or a warmer tropical Atlantic Ocean), we tend to see stronger hurricanes for decades.Bell stated that a warm-phase AMO favorable to hurricanes was in place between 1950 and 1970, and since 1995.The 2021 hurricane outlookOfficially, the Atlantic hurricane seasons begins on June 1, and ends November 30,. According to the National Weather Service, hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific Ocean begins May 15th and ends November 30th. According to the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center, these storms tend to hit on either coast during peak hurricane season, which is between August and October.This year will follow in the footsteps set by the record-breaking 2020 hurricane season. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has forecast above-average activity for the year. NOAA stated that there is a 70% chance this season will produce 13 to 20 named storms. Six to ten of them are expected to become hurricanes. Up to five of those storms could strengthen into major hurricanes. Their winds can reach speeds up to 111 mph (179 km/h).Scientists analyze many factors to make predictions. These include wind speed and sea-surface temperatures. Bell stated that forecasts made too early are not useful because the El Nio/La Nia cycle usually occurs in summer or early autumn.The Climate Prediction Center categorizes hurricane seasons as: above-normal (12 to 28 tropical storms, between 7 and 15 hurricanes; near-normal (10 and 15 tropical storms, between 4 and 9 hurricanes); and below-normal (4 and 9 tropical storms, between 2 and 4 hurricanes).Are hurricanes becoming more powerful?Potential tropical storm Paulette was captured after it had returned from the dead on Sept. 23. (Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS/STAR GOES East Band 13Yes. The world is experiencing stronger tropical cyclones, which are fast-rotating storms like hurricanes or typhoons, on average. This is a change that has been happening for decades. Live Science published a 2020 analysis of over 4,000 tropical storms that occurred between 1979 and 2017. It was concluded that global warming is making these storms stronger. Another study revealed that hurricanes that hit Bermuda are stronger than they were six decades ago. This was reported online by Environmental Research Letters on February 12.Another hurricane downer can be attributed to climate change: Live Science reported that global warming is leading us to "zombie storms", or storms that simply die out, then become refueled and able to rise from the dead. In September 2020, Paulette, a Category 1 hurricane, made landfall in Bermuda. She strengthened to become a Category 2, but then she weakened and eventually died 5.5 days later. However, that was not the end of her story. She regained strength, and she reached tropical storm strength approximately 300 miles (480 km) away from the Azores Islands. According to Live Science, these zombie storms may become more common as the waters warm up, giving once-dead storms new lives.Which cities are most susceptible to hurricanes?Waves crash onto Rodanthe Pier when Hurricane Dorian strikes Cape Hatteras, North Carolina on September 6, 2019. Image credit: Jose Luis Magana/AFP via Getty ImagesHere are the top ten cities that have been most affected or hit by hurricanes, according to HurricaneCity. The website tracks hurricanes and lists them here.Cape Hatteras (North Carolina) Every 1.34 Years (affected 110 hurricanes since 1871) Morehead City, North Carolina Every 1.52 Years Grand Bahamas Island (Bahamas: Every 1.63 Years Wilmington, North Carolina Every 1.69 Years Cayman Islands (most severely affected area in the Caribbean), Every 1.73 Year Great Abaco Island (Bahamas: Every 1.81 year Andros Island, Bahamas Every 1.84 years Bermuda Every 1.86 Year Savannah, Georgia Every 1.91 Year Miami, Florida Every 1.96 years, Florida: Every 1.96 (hit 75 times since 1871).The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind ScaleA storm that has winds speeds of 38 mph (58 km/h) is considered a tropical storm. The storm can reach hurricane strength at speeds of 74 mph (119 km/h). Scientists use a Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (a 1-5 scale) to determine hurricane strength. Category 1 is the most severe and category 5 the strongest. Scientists have suggested adding a category 6 for storms with sustained winds that exceed the maximum for a Category 5 hurricane.Category Maximum sustained wind speed (mph). Potential damage 1 74-95 Moderate with minor roof damage and gutter damage. 2 111-129 Moderate with significant roof and siding damage. 4 130-156 Catastrophic; roofs and exterior walls may be destroyed. Trees will snap. Power outages can last for several weeks or months. Large areas will become uninhabitable within weeks or months. 5 157 and higher. Power outages of up to weeks or months.Source: NOAA's National Hurricane CenterScientists have been critical of using wind speed to assess a storm’s severity and potential damage. They argue that other metrics like storm surge height or rainfall can provide more insight into a storm’s intensity. The National Hurricane Center (NHC), however, argues that storm surge height can be difficult to predict due to local variations in the terrain of ocean floor leading to the coast.How are hurricanes namedIn the beginning, hurricanes were named after the feast day of a Catholic saint. According to the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane San Felipe was a hurricane that struck on September 13, 1876. This is the feast day for Saint Phillip. Live Science previously reported that a suffix would be added to a hurricane that strikes on the same day. To distinguish it from the 1876 storm, Hurricane San Felipe II was given the name Hurricane San Felipe II.The naming convention for hurricanes changed in the 1950s. According to the NHC, hurricanes were given female names using the international alphabet. In 1978, the practice of naming storms only by their female names was discontinued.Although there are many possibilities, meteorologists don't have the freedom to choose names. The World Meteorological Organization has a long list alphabetical storm names. These names repeat on a six year cycle. The organization strives for simple and clear names. To account for the many languages that could be affected by hurricanes, names are available in English, Spanish and Dutch."Experience has shown that short, distinct given names can be used in written and spoken communications faster than older, cumbersome latitude-longitude identification methods. These benefits are particularly important when exchanging detailed storm information among hundreds of scattered stations, coastal bases, and ships at sea," the organization states on its website.If the storm is so severe that it would be inappropriate to use the name again, the group meets and agrees not to include the name on the list.People don't need to be worried about the consequences of Hurricane Katrina, Ike or Hattie again. According to the NHC, those names have been retired.The following list of storm names was prepared by meteorologists for the 2020 hurricane season according to the WMO.AnaBillClaudetteDannyElsaFredGraceHenriIdaJulianKateLarryMindyNicholasOdettePeterRoseSamTeresaVictorWandaHow to prepare for a hurricaneA simple step is all it takes to stay safe during hurricane season: Make a plan. Ready.gov has a simple guide that will help you plan for hurricanes. All family members should have a plan. For animal lovers, Fido or Mr. Whiskers need an escape plan.This plan will help you determine whether it is safe to stay at home in the event of a storm, or whether you need to evacuate. Live Science reported that there's likely to be a particular route you should follow in case of evacuation.You will need to find accommodation if you're in an evacuation zone. This could include staying with friends, renting a motel or staying in shelters.Families often have difficulty reaching one another during hurricanes. It is helpful to establish a meeting place and protocol. Texting is an option, as sometimes local phone lines become jammed during storms. A central contact outside of your state can relay messages to separated family members.According to the Humane Society for the United States, pets should be kept on a leash or in a carrier during storms. Also, emergency supplies should contain a list of vaccinations and a photo for any lost animals. It is also important to find someone to care for them in case a shelter or hotel does not allow pets. In an emergency, they should have a collar with information about an out-of state contact so they can be reunited with you in the event of separation.How to Storm-proof Your HomeAnybody who lives in an area that is susceptible to hurricanes should take precautions to ensure their property is protected in the event of a flooding. According to Ready.gov, hurricanes can often cause damage to property when trees fall on it. Homeowners can lower the chance of this by trimming or removing damaged trees or limbs.It is also important to ensure that rain gutters are in good condition and free from debris. Ready.gov states that it is important to reinforce the roof, doors, and windows.If power is lost for a prolonged period of time, power generators are an excellent option. Power generators can be dangerous and should not be used indoors.If you are serious about prevention, you might consider building a safe room. This is a room that can withstand the severe winds of a hurricane or tornado. According to the Federal Emergency Management Agency pamphlet, "Taking Shelter From the Storm: Building Safe Rooms for Your Home or Small Business" (FEMA 2014),Liste of emergency suppliesA stash of emergency supplies is essential for those who live in hurricane-prone areas. It should be kept in several locations around the house. Ready.gov states that a basic disaster kit should contain:For at least three days, one gallon per person of waterThree days supply of non-perishable foodHand-crank or battery-powered radioExtra batteries for a flashlightFirst aid kitHelp is just a whistle awayDust maskFor sanitation, use moist towelettes, plastic ties and garbage cansFor turning off burst pipes, a wrench or pliers is neededMapsCan opener for foodChargers for cellphonesOriginal publication on Live Science