Rebel fighters celebrate capturing Mekelle last WednesdayThe eight-month conflict in northern Ethiopia has seen thousands die and millions are in dire need of food and assistance. It could be a turning point.After months of fighting, the Ethiopian government decided to pull out its troops. This sparked celebrations in the streets.Prime Minister Abiy Ahmad initially stated that the withdrawal was a strategic decision because the city wasn't "the centre for gravity for conflicts", but later he confirmed that it was to prevent further casualties.Will Davison, Senior Analyst for Ethiopia at The International Crisis Group, says that "we've seen an extremely significant shift in war.""It indicates that either the federal government could not hold onto Mekelle or it realized it was in its best interests to withdraw from Tigray. This was due to significant battlefield gains" made by rebel forces loyal the Tigray People's Liberation Front.The Ethiopian government unilaterally declared an "humanitarian ceasefire in Tigray" after withdrawing. It stated that a pause was necessary to allow for farming activity and aid delivery.However, TPLF forces continued to fight, seizing more territory, including Shire.In this long-running conflict, the Tigrayan rebels appear to be in control. It remains to be seen how this will turn out.Eyes on Amhara's brewing ConflictExperts predict that Ethiopia's leader will now focus on the West of Tigray and the conflict between Tigray rebels forces and those from neighboring Amhara states.MapAmhara is the home of one of Ethiopia's largest ethnic groups. The fertile land bordering the state with Tigray is a matter of dispute for a long time. Amhara regional forces, militias and militias seek to regain some of this territory that they claim is theirs.Continue the storyIain McDermott from Protection Group International, an analyst says that the Amhara wing is one of Abiy’s most powerful regional branches."So that would mean potentially supporting Amhara efforts in annexing areas of Tigray which many Amharas claim were part of Amhara's region prior to 1991."Davison states that there's another reason the federal government should focus on Amhara, which shares a border both with Sudan and Tigray.He claims that this would stop Tigrayans from using the area as a route to international supplies, if all other channels to Tigray are closed.Waning might and moraleIt is not clear how much the Ethiopian military was weakened over the eight months of fighting.According to the rebel group, it claimed that it "neutralized" thousands of Ethiopian soldiers during its June offensive. The rebel group hasn't said if those soldiers were killed or taken as prisoners of war. However, it appears that the Ethiopian National Defence Force suffered heavy losses.Many people have been forced to flee violence and makeshift homes in other areas because they don't know what else to do.Alex de Waal is the executive director of World Peace Foundation of Boston. He says that the ENDF was an army of twenty divisions - seven of which have been destroyed completely, while three others are still in ruins.Others, however, say that it is difficult to determine the exact extent of Ethiopia's losses.Davison says, "It's one the million-dollar questions." We don't know the answer, but it is a worrying picture for federal forces. There has been a substantial depletion, as well as a significant loss in morale.He said that Ethiopia's military is significantly less powerful than it was in the past, when it was a highly-valued regional peacekeeper.One thing is certain: The financial costs of war have been enormous for Ethiopia.This week, Mr Abiy stated that in addition to the cost of Tigray's military operation, his government had spent more 100 billion birr ($about $2.3bn;1.7bn) on rehabilitation, food aid and other assistance. He said this figure was equal to 20% of the country's annual budget.International pressure growingThe international community will closely monitor Mr Abiy’s next steps. For months, it has raised concerns about Tigray's civilian situation.According to the International Committee of the Red Cross, the federal government was accused of cutting off the electricity supply to Tigray and the phone lines to Tigray after withdrawing from Mekelle. This left hospitals in Tigray dependent on generators.Davison says, "That doesn't amount to a humanitarian ceasefire but instead represents a major constraint in the humanitarian operation.""This policy, which looks like it is being implemented by Ethiopia to make Tigray even more unregular now that the dissident leaders have been reinstated in power, will have an additional devastating effect on the civilian population."Continue reading about the Tigray crisisWashington's Biden administration and foreign governments are pressuring Addis Ababa for security improvements in Tigray, which will allow aid to reach the millions of hungry people.Robert Godec, US assistant secretary for state for African affairs, stated that if it does not improve, "Ethiopian and Eritrea should anticipate additional actions." "We won't stand by in the face horrors in Tigray."Inquiry into the troops of EritreaSince the start of the war, federal Ethiopian soldiers have been fighting alongside Eritrean troops. However, the conflict has lasted much longer than either side expected."The big question is whether Eritrea will decide not to withdraw its troops," says Mr De Waal.According to Mr McDermott, security analyst, the protracted conflict has had a detrimental effect on the ties between these two countries. He says that "Relations between Addis-Andamara have become strained.""Much like Mr. Abiy must be careful not alienate his Amhara allies. He also must be careful to not alienate Eritrea. They have been vital to the success of the entire operation."Multiple atrocities, including rape, are being charged with soldiers from Eritrea and other troopsAlthough instability is not new to the Horn of Africa, there are concerns that an increase in tension could have a negative impact on the rest of the region.Prime Minister Abiy is still in control. However, Mr Davison warns that if this happens, it could have catastrophic consequences."Any further fragmentation of the state, let alone a collapse of the state, would be clearly disastrous for the region, given Ethiopia's Horn status.Although it does not seem imminent, the increasing risk must be considered.Tigray - The basics
