According to U.S. intelligence, the U.S. estimates that Kabul's government could collapse in six months following the U.S. withdrawal could be completed in just days. Last month, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani visited Washington and stated that his country is facing an 1861 moment. This refers to the beginning of the U.S. Civil War.In the wake of Tuesday's news conference, General Austin Miller, commander of the U.S.-led Mission in Afghanistan, said that civil war is a path that could be seen if it continues on its current trajectory. This should be alarming for all people.It is more difficult to know how long the U.S. will keep its diplomats in Afghanistan this time than it was in the past.America lost interest in Afghanistan three decades ago when the Soviet occupying military left. This was a result of U.S.-backed militias. There is now a recognition that America cannot ignore a country where chaos in the 1990s led to the plotters for the Sept. 11 attacks. More than 2000 U.S. soldiers have died in the 20 years since.The State Department is still very cautious due to the U.S. political fights over Benghazi, Libya's 2012 tragedy. However, it is also used to operating embassies in violent places like Iraq. Officials in the United States know that any diplomatic withdrawal from Kabul would send a horrible signal to all other countries that have partnered Washington over the past 20 years to try and stabilize Afghanistan. This includes NATO members, which are in the final stages of withdrawing approximately 10,000 troops from Afghanistan by President Joe Biden's Sept. 11 deadline.This is a dynamic that is constantly changing. Ron Neumann served as U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan between 2005 and 2007. So long as Afghanistan is not losing the war, there will be a reluctance [to] pull out of the embassy because it could trigger a stampede.Biden insists that, despite the fact that he is withdrawing all U.S. combat troops from Afghanistan, America will not leave Afghanistan diplomatically or economically. It will continue to fund the Afghan military as well as provide humanitarian aid to the country.Pentagon officials state that the U.S. military mission to Afghanistan will change from training security forces in the country to protecting diplomats and building new relationships with Kabul once the troop withdrawal is complete.At the moment, the U.S. Embassy Kabul does not have an ambassador. Instead, Ross Wilson is the head of the U.S. diplomatic corps and a veteran diplomat.Biden will leave behind approximately 650 troops to ensure security for U.S. Embassy diplomats. The facility has been significantly expanded and fortified since 1989. It covers 36 acres and is located in the central part of Kabul. The compound also includes various-sized residential and office buildings. Some of these buildings stand out because of their yellow or rust-colored exteriors. The site is strictly restricted.The embassy was placed on an ordered departure in April. This meant that non-essential staff had to be sent away. However, the facility still has approximately 4,000 employees, which includes diplomats and contractors from Afghanistan. According to a Kabul official, approximately 1,400 of them are Americans. Recent days have seen a significant outbreak of Covid-19 at the embassy, which has caused staff difficulties.Biden's administration is also working to temporarily relocate thousands more Afghan interpreters to other countries while they wait for American visas. These Afghans are at risk from the Taliban.Scott Weinhold, assistant chief of mission at embassy, said that many people there are used to working in challenging conditions.People are almost more focused on helping partners and people they work with. You can see the concern among Afghan contacts and women contacts about the future, he stated. People are focused on helping them and how to help the people who may be most at risk.Each U.S. Embassy should have an Emergency Action Plan. These plans typically include a list of decision points, which outline scenarios in which U.S. officials can consider actions to increase the protection of America's diplomats.POLITICO was able to obtain a Kabul embassy decision point version that is about three years old. The current versions are classified. POLITICO still finds the decision points relevant today as they cover a wide range of potentially dangerous situations, both natural and man-made.Some are obvious, like a terrorist attack in Kabul or its environs or violent confrontations that could threaten the security perimeter. These threats can be very serious and should be addressed immediately.However, others list conditions that could arise in the event a civil war, or Taliban strangulation of Kabul.One example is if there is an actual or anticipated long-term disruption to utilities, fuel, water, goods and services (including communications), which would result in [the embassy's] inability to maintain safe and healthy conditions.Another possibility is if security in Afghanistan becomes deteriorating and security forces in Kabul become less or unavailable. This could weaken the ability of the host government to respond to security support requests.POLITICO found some of these decision points to be remarkably foresightful. One warning is given about a pandemic scenario and one suggests that you prepare for it.A decision point does not necessarily mean that U.S. diplomats or the embassy will be sent home. An embassy closing would not necessarily be triggered by the collapse of Afghanistan's government. However, top embassy officials will use the time described in the decision points to assess the situation and to take appropriate mitigation measures. These could include anything from reducing staff to holding an employee town hall.James Cunningham was the U.S. ambassador in Afghanistan from 2012 to 2014. He recalls when a rocket crashed into a room at the embassy. He says it was a single rocket and that it did nothing other than burn up old computers.Cunningham cautioned that it was wrong to assume that the Taliban would immediately attempt to seize Kabul from the U.S. troops and overthrow the Afghan government.Cunningham stated that they may decide it is not in their best interests to do so. He added that many Afghans are against the Taliban and will fight for their return to power.The embassy's Emergency Action Plan states that one decision point is made if ground or air access to Kabul's Hamid Karzai International airport in Kabul is interrupted and/or commercial flights are restricted or stopped.The airport could not be secured and may be closed to aid groups, contractors, diplomats and contractors who need access to the country. On Friday, the U.S. military quietly transferred Bagram's air base to Afghan security forces. This effectively ended most of U.S. air support and left Kabul as the last U.S. military presence.According to Pentagon spokesperson John Kirby, officials are still working out details for a possible security agreement between Turkey and the United States regarding the Hamid Karzai international airport.The agreement stipulates that the Kabul airport would be protected by the Turkish forces. Currently, they number around 600. The negotiations are complicated by tensions between Washington, Ankara on issues like the U.S. support for the Syrian Kurds or Turkey's purchase of Russian anti-aircraft systems.Turkey is seeking other countries to help it secure the airport. A few hundred American troops are expected to temporarily remain in Turkey to support the security forces.Recent weeks have seen significant gains by Taliban fighters, who often overtook demoralized Afghan security force in many areas. According to Bill Roggio's analysis of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies Long War Journal, large quantities of U.S.-supplied weapons have been abandoned by surrendering Afghan forces. This includes ammunition, armored Humvees and night-vision devices, and other equipment.According to Roggio, since Biden's announcement of the U.S. troop withdrawal, the Taliban have seized 80 of Afghanistan's 407 districts and now control 157. Many of these gains are located in Afghanistan's north, and they threaten multiple provincial capitals. The Taliban are historically stronger in Afghanistan's south.The United States has fluctuated over the years between 1989 and now in terms of the risks it is willing take with its diplomats.In 2004, the United States established an embassy in Baghdad, more than one year after it invaded Iraq and overthrew Saddam Hussein's regime. The U.S. Embassy at Baghdad, which is now an enormous compound about the same size as Vatican City, has been subject to constant security threats. This was especially true in the chaotic years following the invasion. Two Americans were killed when rocket-wielding insurgents attacked the embassy in early 2005.The United States closed its consulate in Basra, Iraq, under the leadership of Donald Trump. This was due to Iranian security threats. It threatened to close the embassy in Basra last year if the Iraqi government didn't do more to stop rocket attacks on the facility. The embassy has not been closed.The 2012 attack on Benghazi by militants killed four Americans including Chris Stevens, U.S. ambassador, and likely influenced Trump's era moves. This tragedy was used as political fodder by Republican attacks on Hillary Clinton who was at the time secretary of state and was expected to run for president.The State Department was rattled by political violence over Benghazi. It is one reason why many U.S. diplomats operate in isolated, nearly impenetrable conditions in countries that are considered to be hardship posts. (U.S. diplomats to Libya are based in Tunisia. Legislators have made repeated calls to end this bunker mentality in recent years.In Afghanistan, the collapse of the government could take longer than observers anticipate.The Soviet-backed Afghan government led by Mohammad Najibullah held on for three decades after Soviet military withdrawal. This was largely due to the continued military and economic aid from Moscow. Najibullah lost power in April 1992 after the collapse of the Soviet Union.However, Afghan rebel groups fought each other, creating years of chaos, which was largely ended when ultraconservative Islamists from the Taliban took over large parts of the country.In 1996, the Taliban tracked down Najibullah who was in Kabul at a U.N. compound. They beat him to death and hanged his body from a traffic control tower close to the presidential palace. This was a warning to Afghans as well as foreigners about the dark days ahead.
