Although the U.S. struck back in February against a reckless militia rocket attack at an American base, in Iraq, the pinprick strike killed only one night watchman. The first retaliatory exchange appears to have fueled the Iranian-backed militias' desire for more attacks against Americans. The Washington Institutes Militia Spotlight Project has compiled statistics that show that since Biden's election, 24 attacks have been made on U.S. military bases by militias, but they only received three retaliatory replies. These groups are increasing striking U.S. property with drones. The more precise drone strikes now outnumber the unguided rocket strike.According to the militias that were affected, five of the U.S. pilots killed militiamen during this week's strike. However, if true, these men were junior soldiers. Although it is difficult to determine if the United States caused material damage to Iran-supported drone workshops, the drones are inexpensive (typically less than $10,000 per unit) and will quickly be repaired. This is a perfect situation for Iran-backed militias. They can show off their power by poking an enemy superpower without paying any significant costs.Biden's team has been retaliating at will, carefully separating provocation and retaliation. The strikes have not been bold or inventive enough to change the calculations of militia leaders. Instead, they hit targets that don't matter. The administration seems to be obsessed with sending clear, unambiguous deterrent messages to Iran and her militias. U.S. strikes, while being limited to avoid escalation, are too weak to deter. The U.S. strikes are calibrated to approximate the previous militia strike in destructiveness. However, 11 out of 12 militia attacks fail to be answered, the cost exchange favors the groups.U.S. lawmakers are questioning whether the administration is allowed to engage in a series of retaliatory actions against Iran-backed militias. Senator Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), noted that the danger is that the administration enters into a long-running sequence of retaliatory operations against Iran-backed militias.The Biden administration is stuck between unrelenting militia foes, and a skeptical Congress. It must find a better formula than the titt-for-tat tactics of the past few weeks. The solution is easy to state, difficult to implement, but essential, as I have seen these militias in action during my time in Iraq.The first is to hit your enemies more than they hit you. I have observed the consequences of Iraqi militia leaders dying in close proximity to me. After the U.S. killings of Qasem Soleimani, Iranian general, and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, Iraqi militia chiefpin Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis (January 2020), it was clear that militia leaders were dispersed, hiding and keeping a low profile.Instead of pursuing the extreme, the administration should begin to hint at it. Practically, the United States should achieve a near-miss on a sensitive target such as a senior militia leader. A militia leader should be killed at the time and place that we choose, instead of being targeted by a major drone or rocket attack on a U.S. military base.To reduce the possibility of escalation, don't announce U.S. involvement. While the U.S. government was critical of the strike in Iraq, Iran and the militias that it backs in Iraq weren't criticized for their drone and rocket strikes. They don't openly claim such attacks. Israel has not claimed many of its preventive strikes for years. This has allowed its enemies to delay, ignore or prevaricate about retaliation. Unclaimed strikes raise legitimate concerns about transparency and oversight. However, the U.S. government has procedures for not only conducting strikes using Title 50 intelligence and covert actions authorities but also for notifying Congress in closed session.Third, Iran must not be allowed to pass on risk to its proxies. Iran must realize that advanced drones can be costly for their militia proxies. Separately, send messages to Iran's security establishment indicating that the U.S. will be coordinating its covert action against Iranian actions.It is unlikely that the de-escalation of Iran's nuclear negotiations will bring any relief. These talks have not stopped the escalation in militia attacks under Biden. After the 2015 nuclear agreement was signed, Iranian military activism has increased and proxy war has also increased. Ebrahim Raisi, Iran's president-elect, has stated that Iran's missile, military and drone activities are not negotiable. The Biden administration will also be discussing these issues at a later date. Plain old deterrence is the only way to protect U.S. troops deployed in Iraq and Syria. To borrow Raisis's phrase, America should not compromise its right to defend its troops.Biden seeks to decrease the U.S. presence in the Middle East, de-escalate Iran with the U.S., and Murphy and other congressional leaders want to avoid unrestricted use of force for self-defense. These hopes have been somewhat undermined by the administration's current approach. Relying on limited, periodic strikes has not deterred Iran-backed militias attacking U.S. sites. This only requires more strikes and keeps Iran and the U.S. on a collision course. The best way to stop the vicious circle is to strike back more forcefully and quietly. The Biden team likes to say that the Middle East problem can only be managed, but cannot be solved. Let's manage it as efficiently as we can and get the Middle East off of the president's agenda.
