Marcus Semien was a valuable player in the major leagues before 2019. Although he was not a great shortstop, his solid glove and league-average offensive output made him a valuable player. In 2016, Semien showed his power potential, hitting 27 home runs to reach career highs in isolated power (.197) and slugging percentage (435). Semien was able to become a premium defender after an injury-plagued 2017. He was limited to just 85 games in 2017, and ranked third among shortstops for ultimate zone rating (8.3) as well as fifth for defensive runs saved (11). It was Semien's best season yet, according to FanGraphs wins over replacement. His 3.9 mark was the third-best among shortstops and ninth overall.It wasn't until Semien's 2019 season that Semien realized his star potential. Semien maintained his outstanding shortstop play and finally realized his offensive ceiling. He set career highs in almost every meaningful offensive category, which was 38 percent more than the league average. Semien finished third on the American League Most Valuable Player Award, behind Mike Trout and Alex Bregman. He was also the best player on the As team that won the 97th game.Marcus Semien has made steady improvements Statistics for Marcus Semien from 2015 to the 2019 season Season Games HR OBA wRC+ DRS URWAR 2015 155 15 0.31197 -8 -11.7 2016 159 27.315 98 +1-6.2 2.1 2017 85 15 0.31497 -2-3.5 1.7 2018159 15 0.30797 +11 +8.3 2019 162 33.3373 138 +7.6.7 7.6 Stats include weighted base average, runs created, runs saved plus defensive runs, and runs. Source: FanGraphsSemien's 2019 season was a highlight and earned him a substantial raise in the offseason. He also looked for more cash as he was only one year away from free agency. This was to ensure that he could keep up his offensive output. The 2020 season was a disappointment for Semien. He regressed to the pre-2019 offensive output and nabbed a mere 92 weighted run created plus (wRC+), which is 8 percent less than his average. Even worse, UZR rated Semien's defense fourth-best among major-league shortstops. However, other metrics like DRS (-6) were not as positive.Semien, a top-tier shortstop, was not offered a multiyear, lucrative deal. Instead, the As denied Semien a qualifying offer and he had to accept a $18 million one-year deal with the Toronto Blue Jays. This deal also included a defensive shift across all of the diamond. Semien was presented with two options: a risk if things don't go according to plan, or a boon if they do.FiveThirtyEightSometimes, free agents sign one-year pillows contracts to help rebuild their value for next season. It is risky and potentially lucrative, but it can be done. Adrin Beltr signed a $9 million one-year deal with Boston Red Sox in 2010. He then converted that into a $96 million six-year deal with Texas Rangers. This was during which he established a Hall of Fame-caliber professional career. Dexter Fowler (Cubs and Cardinals), Josh Donaldson (Braves and Twins), Nelson Cruz, Orioles, Mariners), Yasmani Granal (Brewers and White Sox) are other examples of players who have taken this approach.Players such as Jake Odorizzi are on the other side of the coin. Odorizzi took a one year qualifying offer from Minnesota Twins, but was able to see other starting pitchers sign multiyear lucrative deals. Odorizzi signed a two-year contract with a player option, but it was less than half of the annual average value of the qualifying offers he received after he had only four starts in 2020.Semien chose this route, despite the risk. Semien is enjoying the rebound season he hoped for, producing at a level which eerily mirrors his breakout season in 2019, especially on offense.Semien bounced back after a poor 2020. The games of June 29, 2021 Season Games HR OBA wRC+ UZR WAR 2019 162 337 138 +7.6.7 7.6 2020 53 7 0299 92 -6.2.1.1.2 2021 77 19 0.375 137 +20.9 3.3 Stats include the weighted on base average, defensive runs saved and ultimate zone rating. Source: FanGraphsSemien has seen a rise in metrics beyond the surface. He seems to have returned to stardom by making a slight change in his approach.Semien's 2019 breakout season saw him set career records with a 11.6 per cent walk rate and 13.7 percent strikeout rates. Semien's 0.85 ratio of walk-to-strikeout was eighth best in baseball. He was simply walking more, while making more contact and adding more power.Semien, on the other hand, is walking less and striking out more in 2021 (8.9%). These numbers are not good, but they are still within the league average. Semien has compensated for the less contact he made by making more contact. Semien is striking out at his best rate since his rookie season. However, he also has career-bests in barrel percentage and average exit velocity.Semien, regardless of his means, is achieving results. The Blue Jays may have made the best deal in 2020's free agent class. His 3.3 FanGraphs War makes him the second-most valuable player on the team, behind Vladimir Guerrero Jr., current MVP front-runner.Semien is not only one of best position players for the Blue Jays. He is also one of best American League position players, making him a worthy candidate for the MVP award. Semien was one of three finalists for second base at the American League's 2021 All-Star Game.Semien is one of the top American League Top 10 American League Position Players in 2021 by FanGraphs wins above substitute. Source: FanGraphsAlthough the Blue Jays are not performing to expectations this season, Semien is taking advantage of the opportunity to build his value and try the free-agent waters at the seasons end. If his offensive production is strong, Semien could be a prime candidate for cashing in this offseason the same way he would have if he had maintained his 2020 production.Semien is an elite-level infielder who can play defense at both the middle and back, making him a highly sought-after free agent in a crowded middle infield class that could include Trevor Story, Javier Bez, Carlos Correa and Corey Seager. Semien could be one of the richest free agents this year if he keeps up his good work.Take a look at our MLB predictions.Which fictional coach is the most chaotic? FiveThirtyEightFiveThirtyEight
