Pews' survey of valid voters from their panel who they could match with as voters who cast ballots in state voter files is one of the most comprehensive analyses of who voted for President Trump and how. Pew conducted similar studies on the 2016 and 2018 electorates. This allows them to see how the parties' coalitions have changed over Trump's era, and what the battle lines are for the 2022 midterm elections.Pew analysis shows that Trump won white voters 12 percentage points (55 percent to 43%), down from 15 in 2016. Trump's lead among white men has been reduced from 30 to 17 points by Biden in 2016, to 17 in 2020. However, Trump won white women with a wider spread (7 points) than in 2016 (2 points).Biden remained unaffected among Black voters. He carried them by an 84 point spread (92 per cent to 8%) which is almost identical to Hillary Clinton's 85-point lead four year ago.Biden won Hispanic voters only 21 points, 59 per cent to 38 percent, which is significantly less than Clinton's 38-point advantage of 66 per cent to 28 percent. Biden won Hispanic males by 17 while Hispanic females by 24, but Trump was victorious among Hispanics without college degrees.According to Ruth Igielnik (a senior researcher at Pew), Trump saw a 10 point increase in Hispanic support from 2016 to 2020. The most striking thing about the Hispanic vote was the large college/non-college gap. Hispanics who did not have a college degree were 10 points more supportive than those with college degrees.Some Republicans are optimistic that Trump's gains with Hispanic voters will allow them to win Texas congressional seats next year. They also hope to retain the two South Florida House seats that they flipped in 2020. The Pew report shows that these gains may be temporary. While Trump lost less among Hispanic voters in 2016, 2020 and 2020, Democrats won the 2018 House races with a wide margin of 47 points.Although the survey does not provide a breakdown of Hispanic voters by origin country, the authors remind readers that Hispanic voting is "not monolithic" and link to an October 2020 blog posting headlined "Most Cuban American Voters Identify as Republican in 2020."Igielnik described 2020 as a time of change and continuity. In 2016, the majority of Trump supporters voted for the same party. Both parties also gained new voters through huge increases in turnout for 2018 midterms, and the 2020 presidential election. Both candidates benefited from the addition of new voters in 2020. Biden won the largest number of younger voters, while Trump won new voters over 30.Igielnik stated that a key group of voters was the one who didn't vote in 2016, historically, which is a lower turnout year for a presidential election, but did vote in 2018 and 2020. Given the history of opposition to new presidents and the drop in turnout when they are not on the ballot, it will be crucial for Democrats to keep these voters in the fold.According to Igielnik, that group was 2-to-1 in favor of Biden. This is where he was able get the edge.Despite the increase in turnout, historical trends regarding who voted and didn't vote have not changed. Voters were more likely than ever to be older, more Republican and more white. In line with long-term trends, younger voters, Democrats, and non-whites made up a larger portion of those who didn't turn out for 2020.Igielnik stated that all these differences were evident even in this high-turnout election. Voters and non-voters had very similar characteristics.Pews validated voter poll was conducted between Nov. 12-17th, 2020 with approximately 10,000 voters. The results were weighted according to the general election outcome. Trump won 47 percent and Biden 51 percent.
