According to a UNCTAD report, the international tourism crash caused by the coronavirus epidemic could result in a drop of over USD 4 trillion to global GDP between 2020 and 2021. The pandemic's direct effect on tourism and its ripple effects on other closely related sectors is what caused the estimated loss.This report was jointly produced with UN World Tourism Organization (UNWTO). It estimates that international tourism and closely related sectors suffered a loss of USD 2.45 trillion in 2020, due to the direct and indirect effects of a sharp drop in international tourists arrivals.The report warns that similar losses could occur in the coming year. It also notes that tourism sector recovery will heavily depend on global uptake of COVID-19 vaccinations.According to UNCTAD acting secretary general Isabelle Durant, the world needs a global vaccine effort that will protect workers and mitigate negative social effects. It will also make strategic decisions about tourism, taking into consideration potential structural changes.Zurab Pololikashvili, UNWTO Secretary-General, stated that tourism is an important source of income for millions of people. Providing vaccinations to help communities recover and to support tourism's safe start is crucial to the recovery and development of jobs, as well as to generate much-needed resources. This is especially true in developing countries which are heavily dependent on international tourism.Inequity in vaccines is a problem for developing countriesThe report states that COVID-19 vaccinations are more prevalent in certain countries than in others. This means that tourism losses in developed countries are lower, but they are worse in developing countries. The COVID-19 vaccination rates vary across countries. They range from less than 1% in some countries to more than 60% in others.The report states that the uneven roll-out of vaccines can increase the economic damage tourism has suffered in developing nations, which could lead to up to 60% of global GDP losses. According to the report, tourism will recover quicker in countries that have high vaccination rates like France, Germany and Switzerland.UNWTO says experts don't expect an increase in international tourist arrivals to levels pre-COVID-19 until 2023 or later. Travel restrictions, slow containment, low traveller confidence, and poor economic conditions are the main obstacles.In 2021, a loss of up to USD 1.8 trillion is expectedAlthough international tourism will rebound in the second half this year, the UNCTAD report still predicts a loss between USD 1.7 trillion to USD 2.4 trillion by 2021, as compared to 2019. These simulations do not include policies like economic stimulus programmes to reduce the impact of pandemics on international tourism.The report examines three scenarios that could result in a reduction in international tourist arrivals in 2021. UNWTO projects a 75% reduction in international tourist arrivals. This is the most pessimistic scenario based on 2020's tourist declines.This scenario shows that a drop of $948 billion in global tourist receipts causes a decrease in real GDP of $2.4 trillion. That's a two-and a half-fold increase. This ratio can vary greatly between countries, ranging from onefold to threefold or even fourfold. According to the report, this is a multiplier that depends on backward links in the tourism sector. This includes the unemployment of unskilled labor.Turkey's GDP is about 5%, and international tourism contributed 69% to the decline in 2020.According to estimates, the country's decline in tourism demand amounts to $33 billion. This leads directly into losses in closely related sectors like food, beverage, retail trade, communications, and transport.The second scenario represents a 63% decrease in international tourists arrivals. This is a more optimistic forecast by UNWTO. UNCTAD has also created a third scenario that considers the different rates of regional and domestic tourism in 2021. It assumes that tourism will decline by 75% in countries with low vaccination rates and 37% in countries with high vaccination rates. This includes both developing countries and smaller countries.All countries suffer job lossesAccording to the report, a decrease in tourism results in a 5.5% increase in the unemployment rate of unskilled labor on average. There is a large variance of 0% up to 15% depending on how important tourism is for the economy. Around 30% of all tourist services spending in developed and developing countries is accounted for by labour. The sector is highly populated by young women and has low entry barriers.Losses that are worse than expectedUNCTAD calculated that the global economy would suffer from a four-to-12 month stoppage in international tourism between USD 1.2 trillion to $3.3 trillion last July. This includes indirect costs.However, the losses are more severe than expected. Even the worst-case scenario UNCTAD predicted last year is optimistic. International travel has remained low for 15 months since the pandemic began. UNWTO reports that international tourist arrivals fell by approximately 1 billion, or 73%, between January 2020 and December 2020. The UNWTO World Tourism Barometer shows a drop of 88% in international tourist arrivals during the first quarter 2021.The greatest impact of pandemics on tourism has been felt in developing countries. These countries saw the greatest reductions in tourist arrivals between 60% and 80% in 2020. These are North-East Asia and South-East Asia. Oceania, North Africa, North Africa, and South Asia are the most affected regions. North America, Western Europe, and the Caribbean are the least affected.
