MailOnline headlined 13 June: Study finds 29% of 42 people who died from the new strain received BOTH vaccines. The majority of those (60%) had received at least one dose.It can sound alarming that most people who die in England from the now-dominant Delta variant (B.1.617.2) have been vaccinated. Is this a sign that the vaccines are not effective? It is not true. This is what we would expect from an imperfect but effective vaccine. The risk profile varies greatly depending on age and how the vaccines were rolled out.Imagine a world in which everyone received a sub-optimal vaccine. Even though the death rate would be very low, all those who died would have been fully immunized.These vaccines aren't perfect. PHE estimates that the two-dose effectiveness against hospitalization with Delta infections is around 94%. It is possible to assume that there is at most 95% protection against Covid-19-related death. This means that the lethal risk of dying is less than one twentieth of its usual level.The risk of getting Covid-19 poisoning is extremely dependent on your age. It drops by half for every six- to seven-year gap. A person aged 80 who has been fully vaccinated can assume the same risk as someone 50 years younger. However, this is still a significant amount of risk and we can expect some deaths.PHE also revealed that almost a third of the deaths due to the Delta variant occur in unvaccinated older adults. This may surprise given the high coverage of vaccines. OpenSAFELY, for instance, estimates that more than 93% of the 65-69 age group. However, there is a lower rate in areas that are less fortunate and some communities and ethnicities with low coverage will still experience greater losses.For evaluating vaccination programs, coverage and effectiveness are key metrics. Cool analysis by analysts is more important than the hot take on social media.
