Tropical Storm Laura expected to form today and Florida is in forecast track

A tropical depression formed overnight in the mid-Atlantic and is expected to develop into Tropical Storm Laura during the day Thursday, the National Hurricane Center said. Florida is in the storm's projected forecast cone.

The storm is expected to move along a fairly quick west-northwest track over the next several days, approaching the southeastern Bahamas during the weekend.

"Based on current timing and latest model information, the system could affect South Florida early next week, perhaps by Monday," said a briefing issued by the National Weather Service's Miami-South Florida forecast office on Wednesday afternoon.

The depression was making an approach toward the Caribbean Sea, the National Hurricane Center said. A tropical storm watch was issued for part of the Caribbean islands as of 8 a.m. Thursday, which means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. It had sustained winds of 35 mph and was moving at 21 mph, according to the hurricane center.

Forecasts said South Florida residents should continue to monitor its progress. Whether or not the storm moves over the terrain of Greater Antilles this weekend will factor into its track and intensity, the NHC said in its 5 a.m. advisory. Storms generally lose intensity over land and may encounter storm-weakening wind shear.

One of the other two tropical waves, a fast-moving system located over the eastern Caribbean, has its sights set on Mexico or Central America, the hurricane center said. It was expected to move slowly west toward Central America before making a slight turn to the northwest. It is expected to become a tropical depression this week.

A third wave developed over east Africa late Tuesday into early Wednesday. According to the forecast, some development is possible this week. But conditions are far less conducive for cyclone development by early next week, according to the NHC.

"These are right on schedule," said Dennis Feltgen, spokesman for the Miami-based National Hurricane Center. "This time of year, in August and into September, you get these tropical waves that roll off the coast of Africa on average about every three or four days."

However, it is still early and those forecasts could change.

"Some of the models have no chance in the world of ever coming to be," Feltgen said. "The only thing we want people to focus on is the forecast track, and that's only going to happen once we get a tropical cyclone. Right now, there's absolutely no model consensus at all."

The next disturbance to become a named storm will be called Laura, and if that occurs before the end of the month, 2020 would tie 2005 for the most tropical storms in history entering September, with a dozen.

After that, the remaining names for 2020 are Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky and Wilfred.

"Our main message to people is just to remain hurricane ready this year,"NWS meteorologist Harry Weinman said. "There's obviously a lot of activity out there."

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In July, there were five tropical storms: Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna and Isaias. Other named storms this year have included Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal and Dolly. Tropical Storm Arthur formed in mid-May, making this the sixth straight year that a named storm formed before the official start of hurricane season on June 1.

Virtually all estimates for this hurricane season predict an above-average number of storms, due to unusually warm ocean temperatures and global climate factors that are likely to reduce the high-altitude winds that can prevent the formation of hurricanes.

The hurricane experts at Colorado State University said in their latest forecast for the 2020 season, issued last week, that they expect 24 named storms, 12 hurricanes and five major hurricanes this year. That's up from its July 8 forecast, in which they predicted 19 to 20 named storms.

Staff writers Wayne K. Roustan and David Fleshler and contributed to this report.

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