The survey - conducted in the days after Biden appeared on MSNBC's "Morning Joe" on Friday to personally deny the charges for the first time - found 28 percent of Democrats "definitely" or "probably" favor replacing Biden with another nominee to take on President Donald Trump in November.
The prospect, while exceedingly remote, comes as Biden works to coalesce the support of liberals and younger voters who backed someone else in the primary. It also underscores tension in the party amid an international movement against harassment and sexual assault.
"The Democratic Party faces a real crisis of conscience,"said Camille Rivera, a Democratic strategist with a progressive firm in New York. "We have spent so much effort and energy calling out Donald Trump and creating a movement around the importance of believing women and at the same time we have a troubling accusation about our Democratic nominee."
Biden, whom Reade accused of sexually assaulting her in 1993 when she was a young aide in his office, forcefully denied the allegation in the MSNBC interview Friday. "Unequivocally, it never, never happened. It didn't. It never happened," he said.
Later, during a virtual fundraiser with former staffers of President Barack Obama, Biden added he's not concerned about what evidence about the claim might emerge, "because I know the truth of the matter."
The new poll found a majority of Democrats sticking with him after the denials.
"I think in the long run Biden will get points for standing up and doing the right thing," said Stephanie Cutter, a Democratic strategist and former senior adviser to Obama. "He denied it happened, but said her voice should be heard, treated her respectfully and called for records to be released. That's a contrast to the current president in every way."
Democrats noted Biden's calls for an investigation and his pursuit of documents to help exonerate himself. The former vice president had urged the secretary of the Senate to release any relevant personnel records, though the chamber announced Monday it has no discretion to disclose the information Biden sought.
"I expect that as Democratic voters learn more about his strong denial and specific calls for transparency, any concerns about this will dissipate," said Meredith Kelly, a Democratic strategist who worked on Kirsten Gillibrand's presidential campaign.
Several other Democratic operatives pointed to battleground state polls showing broad support in the party for Biden. They argue that voters, when given a negative piece of information in isolation, may say it makes them less likely to vote for the candidate. But the binary choice with Trump - who himself has dismissed or denied numerous allegations of assault and inappropriate behavior toward women over the years - will end up being an easy choice for most.
"When people are voting in November," said Rose Kapolczynski, a Democratic strategist in California,"this charge will be just one data point amid Biden's record of stable, competent leadership and Trump's miserable record of failing the American people."
The poll found Biden still needs to reassure skeptics within the Democratic Party. That includes "those less likely to vote for him in light of the allegations and those in favor of replacing him as the party's nominee altogether," said Tyler Sinclair, vice president for Morning Consult.
In the survey, which was conducted Saturday and Sunday, nearly 2-in-3 voters, 64 percent, said they had heard "a lot" or "some" about Reade's allegations against the then-Delaware senator. Republicans (70 percent) were more likely to say they've heard about the allegations than Democrats (62 percent) and independents (60 percent).
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Nearly a third of all voters, 32 percent, said the allegations made them less likely to vote for Biden, including 20 percent of Democratic voters. There was a slight gender gap: 22 percent of Democratic women said the allegations made them less likely to vote for Biden, compared with 17 percent of Democratic men.
Trump aides and allies have pounced. Kelly Sadler, with America First Action PAC, said while the initial reaction from the Democratic Party "elite" has been to "circle the wagons" around Biden, the base of his party is showing signs of disappointment. "Americans have a lot to learn about a 'Sleepy/Creepy Joe Biden,'" Sadler said, using nicknames coined by Trump, "and we plan to educate them."
There is some evidence that the allegations are proving to be a slight drag on Biden's overall image. In the new poll, 43 percent of voters said they had a favorable opinion about the former vice president, down from 45 percent last week and 46 percent the week before that.
Biden's favorable rating, 43 percent, matches that of Trump - though more voters have an unfavorable opinion of the incumbent, 50 percent, than Biden, 45 percent. (Poll respondents were asked about their overall views of Biden before they were presented with any questions about Reade's allegations.)
The POLITICO/Morning Consult poll surveyed 1,987 registered voters through online interviews and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
Morning Consult is a global data intelligence company, delivering insights on what people think in real time by surveying tens of thousands across the globe every single day. More details on the poll and its methodology can be found in these two documents: |
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