Now that the first strong cold front of the season has worked its shivering way across the nation, many Americans know the next thing they need to do: book their Thanksgiving and Christmas/New Year's flights.
Thanksgiving and the year-end holidays are some of the busiest days of the year for air travel. And getting a good deal on busy travel days has become a challenge that many consumers gladly accept.
But first let's debunk a long-reported "fact." It's not true, and likely never was, that the day before Thanksgiving is the busiest travel day of the year. In fact, it's not even in the top 10. That's because there are very few business travelers on that day, or on similar days very close to the Christmas and New Year's holidays. If you're just talking about leisure travelers, then those days may well be among the very busiest for that group.
Now, if you're thinking about buying your holiday tickets, you should wait until the first week of November if getting the cheapest fare is your goal. That's according to Adobe Analytics, which just analyzed more than 1 trillion consumer visits to websites, including travel sites, in 2018 and 2019. The Adobe folks learned that the first week of November delivers the biggest savings on airfares, and that Nov. 6, specifically, is the very best day for snagging a low price on a flight.
Waiting longer, however, could cost travelers money, according to Adobe. It expects air travel prices to rise to as much as 14% higher in the following two weeks than in that first week of November.
"I think people assume that booking now would end up saving them some money, but last year's data model doesn't support that," said Vivek Pandya, managing analyst at Adobe Digital Insights. "If you are still in the market to book flights, that first week of November is really the sweet spot."
Since 2016 the average price for flights around Thanksgiving have risen about 6% year-over-year. But Adobe Digital Insights expects such tickets this year to average around 5% lower compared to the same period last year.
"We've seen a strong level of growth in online holiday revenue share for the travel industries, and airlines in particular," Pandya said. "Part of that can be attributed to better and more seamless experiences online for booking, and also the fact that prices have been a bit down this year overall. That forces the demand up."
Adobe Analytics data also predict that travelers will be able to get the lowest prices for Christmas travel by waiting to buy until the first week of December. But again, it's a case of "wait, but don't wait too long." "Don't wait too long, as prices will jump back up [8%] the week prior to the holiday," Pandya said.
And for those who know they can only travel once during the two holiday periods, Thanksgiving or Christmas-New Year's, Thanksgiving should be the target because the absolute lower prices will be available for travel then. Based on its analysis of prices over the last few years, Adobe Analytics says that fare prices for travel during the week leading up to Christmas have been nearly 17% more expensive than the fares for travel during the week leading up to Thanksgiving.
For the somewhat fewer people who are considering flying somewhere to celebrate New Year's Eve and New Year's Day, Nov. 6 also is expected to be the date when the lowest fares will be available, according to the Adobe analysis.
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