During my ill-advised mileage run to Kuala Lumpur, I had a chance to see the effect of the Coronavirus on airlines and here are my observations.
If you haven't followed us on Facebook or Instagram, add us today.I was personally convinced that concerns about Coronavirus were mostly hype. The disease appears to spare younger patients, and statistically, it seemed on par with Influenza though fatality rates were lower and contagion was higher.
When I left early in the week on a domestic roundtrip to Houston, the world was pretty much as we left it. However, by Wednesday the Houston rodeo, which had never cancelled or closed early in 80 years, shut down weeks early. That same evening the NBA season was postponed while a game was in progress. By Thursday, the several basketball tournaments were off before the NCAA tournament, then all NCAA events were cancelled.
My hubris at the beginning of the week melted and by Friday night, I was on the phone with ANA looking for waivers to cancel my reservation. Some cards offer trip insurance but I wasn't confident the one I used would for this situation.
Houston may have adjusted their rollout but at the time of departure, people were careful but there was no coordinated effort by the airport. Pittsburgh had a single hand sanitizer station in the widely traversed passenger areas. Newark had just one, following TSA at terminal C, I was actively looking and found no others between C87 and C139.
It's possible that there is a more coordinated effort, but I am actively looking for hand sanitizing stations and struggled. I wasn't alone. A small line formed near the C-terminal dispenser before and after me at Newark. If we can't find them then either they aren't there or aren't prominently marked.
At TSA I became concerned regarding the bins as well which have often been regarded as petri dishes. There were no additional measures taken to sanitize the trays between passengers and I would be surprised if they had been cleaned in any way in quite some time.
TSA staff were diligent in their inspection of my electronics, but a message about the transmission of a disease that's referred to as a "pandemic" had not made an impression on any of the agents I encountered.
All carriers have made cuts, some more than others. However, none that I have seen have gone far enough. My wife's flight was about half full on Friday, mine had 69 of 370 seats sold to Narita, from Tokyo Narita to Kuala Lumpur, ANA sold just 60 of 250.
There are only two outcomes that I can see depending on what happens with attempts at containment.
First, containment is successful, there are no new cases from today onward and the world starts turning again. Despite that rosy outlook, a lot of the damage is already done. Conventions, events, and meetings are postponed and will take a long time to get reorganized. It's also going to take some effort to get consumers with leisure trips to want to go back out in the world until it can be absolutely certain that the coast is clear.
Second, a pandemic is truly underway, tens of millions are infected and recovery for millions around the world never occurs, devastation both from a health standpoint and the economics of the world are set back for years.
In either situation, (it's all better tomorrow, or it's a true pandemic with lasting infection) the airlines will still have dramatically lower yield factors for the foreseeable future. There is no way for this situation to resolve itself in the coming weeks back to what was, ultimately, peak travel.
It's not just lots of empty seats today, it's the doom and gloom of the staff who have seen this all before, that makes the response seem slower. Multiple daily flights remain from Pittsburgh to Newark and Pittsburgh to Houston. They are going out half full (or empty depending on your perspective) and for the sake of the future of United, need to be reduced to one or two daily flights on idle equipment.
Walking past the endless gates of ANA widebodies at Tokyo Narita with virtually no passengers in the waiting area was a dramatic sight, the same was true at the other airports as well.
They need to make deep cuts necessary in staff, schedule and facilities now to avoid absolute doom later.And now for a moment of humility. Sometimes I get caught up in trying to filter out the noise and I miss the bigger issue. I hadn't considered my ability to contract the disease and spread it to others unwittingly putting them in jeopardy. I do think that the media has dramatized this beyond the real level of due concern (Dr. Drew agrees) which has had a lasting effect on businesses and soon on employees all over the world.
I was so quick to dismiss the screaming talking heads, that I hadn't considered that the situation could actually be serious. I recognize my lack of humility and am reminded of what's really important - two-ply rolls of Charmin.
Flying this last week has been a significant adjustment. Neither airlines nor airports are acting significantly enough and most of it is entirely within their control. Airlines, in particular, need to make drastic and immediate cuts to protect themselves and their solvency. It's not just to reduce losses for investors, it's to keep employees in their role for the long term (even if sabbaticals are necessary now) and reduce strain on the government which will be stretched thin as a result. And... I was overly ambitious and didn't respect the effect Coronavirus may have on travelers other than myself.
What do you think? Are airlines and airports responding quickly enough? What changes would you make? Is there any harm in making large cuts and then reversing course if the storm passes quicker than expected?If you're considering a new credit card, please visit our link and support Live And Let's Fly.
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