The Age of Digital, Transparent Warfare Is Here

It was not a surprise that the war in Ukraine was a surprise. It was not a surprise because the world was watching Russia build its forces on the border. All the digital traces left as people and equipment move through a highly connected world will be integrated with information from satellites.

It won't be possible to sneak up on someone else's country with an army, navy, or air force in the year 2023. The armed forces around the world will attempt to counter this by assembling, moving from home bases, and maneuvering on the front lines in more dispersed ways. The fleet of commercial vans moving small numbers of heavy artillery rounds on well-varied routes from West to East in Ukranian shows what can be done if done right.

Even if it costs tens of thousands of dollars, a single precision missile can destroy a platform and put the lives of its crew in danger. This will change the way armies, navies, and air forces are organized. As the world lives with the threat of a 21st century Great Power Conflict, the need to drive down costs and increase inventory will only increase.

Digital technologies will transform confrontation and conflict as they integrate with advances in robotics, autonomy, and data in the cloud. The combination will lead to armed forces that are more than just people operating equipment, they are teams of inhabited, uninhabited, and autonomously capable. The process of augmenting how the armed forces organize, operate, and train is just the beginning, as technology advances and experience grows, it will be as revolutionary as booking a room at a hotel or using a ride hailing service. The Digital Age will change the way conflicts are confronted. The winner will be bold enough to move quickly and the loser will have succumbed to the comforts of change.

War will always be about killing people and breaking their stuff quicker than they can do it to you. It will still be a contest of wills, an aspect of the human condition that is far from being wiped out. There will be a mix of reasons, emotion, and chance. Technology doesn't change how we fight