There are some things that just happen. A female singer singing a song. The basketball player is playing with the ball. WarrenBuffett invests in stocks.

Buffett doesn't invest in stocks at times because he doesn't want to be associated with people who do things. We know that theOracle of Omaha bought 19 stocks for the portfolio of the company. It's not out of the question that Buffett could not buy a lot of stocks in the New Year.

The legendary investor has a very strict criterion that he applies before buying a company's stock. Don't buy any stock in 2023 if it doesn't pass the critical test.

Warren Buffett with people in the background.

The Motley Fool used this image.

Buffett's two steps

Both Charlie Munger and Warren Buffet use the same approach to buying stock in companies they acquire. Two steps are needed to complete this process.

  1. Estimate the company's earnings range for five or more years in the future.
  2. Buy the stock if it's available at a reasonable price, relative to the lower end of the estimated earnings range.

The first step in this process is the use of the important word. He and Munger had to figure out if they could estimate a company's earnings fairly.

Projections could be plucked out of the air by anyone. In order to estimate earnings, thorough research and careful analysis must be done.

He tells us that the earnings range should be estimated. It's not possible to project any business's future earnings. It's the best anyone can do.

Five or more years in the future is important. Strong earnings can be generated over the short term, but not over the long term.

Digging deeper

There is a question about how an investor can estimate a company's earnings range. You need to understand the company's business in order to make an educated estimate.

It's vital, however, that we recognize the perimeter of our circle of competence and stay well inside of it.

If you want to estimate future earnings, you should look at the company's financial statements. It's important to check the balance sheet to make sure debt won't affect earnings growth.

The competitive landscape is examined. A company with a lot of competition in a stagnant market will be less likely to grow its earnings than a company that dominates a market.

Wall Street analysts' earnings projections should be looked at. The goal is to estimate earnings for five years in the future, not just for the next few quarters.

The question of a reasonable price relative to the lower end of the estimated earnings range needs to be answered. The growth of the company will affect this. The average price-to- earnings estimate of the S&P 500 is 19.6. A stock that trades under this level should have a good margin of safety.

Two stocks that pass the Buffett test

Is there any stock that passes the test in the year 2023? I believe so.

I put the company on the list without doing any research. The oil and gas producer is fairly valued, relative to its future earnings potential, due to the fact that he recently bought a lot of the stock.

Medical Properties Trust stands out if we only look at stocks that aren't owned by Buffet. Hospitals are lessees of healthcare real estate investment trusts.

It can grow earnings by an average of 6.5% a year over the next five years, according to analysts. Over the past five years, MPT has increased its earnings by more than twice that rate.

Let's assume that MPT will only grow its earnings by 3% over the next five years. The stock is 4.5 times overvalued. With its juicy dividend yield of 10.5% thrown into the mix, I think MPT is worthy of serious consideration.

Maybe the returns will not be great. He admitted in his letter that he makes mistakes. We'll do that if he does. Only stocks that pass his critical test should be bought.

There are positions in the company. There are positions in and recommendations for the company. There are three options recommended by the Motley Fool: long January 2023 $200 calls on the company, short January 2023 $200 puts on the company, and short January 2023 $265 calls on the company There's a disclosure policy at the Motley Fool.