According to a report by the Royal United Services Institute, the Russian air force lacks fully trained pilots and has made poor use of the few good pilots that it has.
The Russian air force entered the conflict with less than 100 fully trained and current pilots according to the report.
Moscow is endangering the long-term health of Russian air power. Instructors will be committing to battle in order to have fewer mentors in the future.
According to the report, the ability to generate new pilots has been hampered by the use of trainers from their flying schools. There has been a rise in the number of young and old pilots in the Ukrainian military.
It is normal for experienced pilots to be moved from frontline duties to training units, where they can teach rookies. A decline in pilot quality was one of the reasons why Nazi Germany lost World War II.
Russia is committing its pilots to fight.
The RUSI report says that with a military culture that assigns the most dangerous missions to the most experienced crews, attrition in the VKS has fallen disproportionately.
The return of veteran pilots is one reason why Moscow wants them back.
It's possible for the air force to have well-trained pilots, but they're hobbled by old aircraft or lack of spare parts. A lack of qualified pilots is likely to have other problems.
The RUSI report pointed to problems with Russian ground crews. An easily avoided mistake which has a severe impact on effectiveness is the failure to remove covers from aircraft sensors. The report suggests challenges in discipline and junior leadership for maintenance crews.
The habit of stacking weapons next to planes is a sign of poor discipline. With Ukraine now using drones to strike airfields hundreds of miles inside Russia, the loss of more precious aircraft and pilots is more likely.
How bad are these problems? Since the beginning of the conflict, Russia has responded with a reduction in the scale and complexity of their air operations.
Implications for future Russian air operations overUkraine are still more ominous. With a peace treaty or ceasefire unlikely in the near future, the war could drag on for years, meaning Russia will wage a lengthy air campaign.
The Battle of Britain, the Allied bomber offensive over Germany, and the US bombing of North Vietnam were all long air campaigns.
Russia needs to keep competent and disciplined ground crews. The skies of Ukraine will become more unfriendly for Russian airpower if it squanders its pool of veteran pilots.
His work has been published in Forbes, Defense News, Foreign Policy magazine, and other publications. He has a masters degree in political science. You can follow him on social networking sites.
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