Despite passing the billion-dollar mark at the global box office, sluggish sales in China could hurt the film.
The Disney film has sold over a billion dollars in worldwide ticket sales, with a combination of domestic and international sales.
The same benchmark was achieved by both "The Way of Water" and "Avatar" in 14 days. The film is one of the fastest movies to reach $1 billion in box-office sales.
In order to be considered profitable, "The Way of Water" needs to hit $2 billion in box-office receipts.
Analysts think that the movie could hit the goal. There is no competition for "The Way of Water" in theaters until the movie "Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania" is released in February.
Ticket sales from China are not great. The market was expected to be a major source of revenue for the sequel, but it hasn't done as well as expected.
China has sold just $108 million in tickets for the movie. The opening weekend of the film was expected to bring in 100 million dollars.
Only a few Hollywood films have been allowed to be released in China this year. The Chinese market is important for blockbusters seeking top box-office numbers.
Many Covid controls were ended by China. The country's health-care system has been overwhelmed by infections. At this point, it's not clear what the scale of the Covid outbreak has been in the country. The daily figures were stopped by the National Health Commission on Sunday.
"There were high hopes placed on the country to deliver the additional revenue needed to help put the film over the top in terms of the lofty global earnings expectations set forth by James Cameron."
"Titanic" and the first "Avatar" had long theatrical runs, so the film's traditional box-office trajectory works in the film's favor."
He hopes the health situation will get better over time.