It became nearly impossible to buy an electric vehicle after it went mainstream. They were out sold by e- bikes, which continued their march towards popular acceptance. Gas prices went through a roller coaster. Interest rates also went up. We were befuddled by the expansion of the companies. The transit agencies had a hard time getting back to pre-pandemic levels. We were shown a robot, shed billions in dollars of value, and watched enviously as the CEO found a new toy to play with.
Who wants to remember the past when there was so much more to do?
Who wants to remember the past when there was so much more to do? I thought it would be cool to reach out to a bunch of my favorite smart people in transportation in order to get their predictions for the future.
Is car prices going to stay the same? Will China surpass the US in the field of self driving vehicles? Will more people replace their boring SUVs and minivans with electric cargo bikes? Let us know what our experts see in their crystal balls.
Car prices will start to fall in a measurable and noticeable way. It has been a long couple of years with inflated prices due to demand, low borrowing costs, and covid supply shortages, but I think things will equalize in the year 2023.
Current micro mobility options are not accessible to certain groups, including those with mobility challenges, conditions that impact balance, or can't afford a mode of transportation. Think three-plus wheel options for better stability, personalization, and options that address the needs of certain people when thinking about innovation that adds value to mobility solutions in the years to come. People will be able to get maintenance support if networks of service partners are expanded.
Car prices will start to fall in a noticeable and measurable way.
Cities like Denver have recently rolled out successful e-bike incentive and rebate programs and we expect 10-plus states to offer them next year as local officials recognize their popularity and general awareness around e- bikes as viable transportation solutions builds. Incentives are helping people get to work, pick up their kids from school, and run their own errand. The number of households with more than one car has gone up from 22 percent in 1960 to 59 percent in 2020. According to data from i See Cars, the average used car costs $34,617, while cargo e- bikes can cost less than $2,000. With budgets tightening as interest rates rise, we expect more households to opt for a cargo e-bike instead of a second car, thus decreasing the number of households with a second car. While city dwellers and suburbans make up one-third of rad riders, one-third of them live in rural areas and we expect adoption in that group to increase in the years to come. Consumers who live in rural areas use ATVs and golf carts to get around, but many are replacing those miles with e- bikes. They are also benefiting from e- bikes, which allow them to enjoy nearby trails and parks, as well as explore their surrounding areas. Increased battery and motor innovation will lead to increased ranges, making e- bikes an even more viable option. City planners will work with private companies in the future. Lack of infrastructure is one of the biggest challenges facing e-bike adoption. By using the research, deep product knowledge and consumer insights from private companies, government entities and community groups will be better equipped to build biking infrastructure from the beginning. E-bike riders will come if it is built correctly.
More households are expected to opt for a cargo e-bike.
Sexy electric cars are not. Sexy is something you know. The electric bikes are powered by electricity. The transportation revolution of the last decade has been in bike share and e-scooters, but in the half billion bike share and e-scooter trips taken. If the nation's cities invested half as much money and road space as they do now, electric bike sales would more than double in a year.
How high can interest rates go? The average interest on a used car loan is over $10,000 a year. It used to be possible to buy a car for 10,000 dollars.
Independent dealers are shutting down at a faster pace than in the past. What's the reason? Independent dealers use a single profit center to sell used cars. It gets harder to sell used cars at scale when rates go up. Even if you aren't aiming for scale, the small operators in the industry are facing huge challenges when it comes to affordability and financeability.
How much higher can these rates go, that's the interest rates piece.
We are entering an era of sustainable businesses that include healthy balance sheets and lots of operating leverage. It will be the first time in the last 10 years that traditional dealers will gain more market share than online-only dealers. The macro environment will benefit traditional dealers who rely heavily on variable expense structures and carry leaner operations. As vehicle affordability reaches new lows, vehicle subscription companies will scale at the fastest rate in a decade. I think they will gain market share as their value proposition becomes more compelling in a recession. The people will look for ways to save.
I believe that there will be an all-time high of around 8,000 pedestrian deaths in 2022, but overall roadway deaths will level off from the historic high of 2021.
The audiovisual industry will be retrenched. There will be more layoffs in the large AV companies. The emphasis will shift to high automation features. As opposed to full autonomy, which will still take time, I am very bullish on advanced autonomy.
As vehicle affordability reaches new lows, vehicle subscription companies will scale quickly.
Since the latter is unable to deliver, there are some existing partnerships between the two companies. For startups that only rely on cameras, this will be true. Financial realities catch up when you don't meet your promises. There is still a need for technology to compensate for the distraction of human drivers. Remaining companies with a narrow focus on technology breakthrough, deployment and revenue generation will become stronger and better bets because of the decrease in the number of audiovisual companies. The number of sensor companies will decline. Many companies chase too small a market. The ones with the most promising technologies could be absorbed into Tier-1s or manufacturers. There are a lot of logistical and financial problems that will shrink the micro mobility space. The companies trying to build flying cars and person-carrying drones will not succeed. The market cap of companies like Nio andTesla will come back to earth and stay there, with P-E ratios becoming largely homogeneity.
The e-bike tax credit was killed in the inflation reduction act. It seems unlikely that it will be revived now that Republicans are in charge of the House. States are ready to lead the charge for e-bike adoption. California, Connecticut, and Colorado are all preparing for their own e-bike subsidy programs. In blue states where leaders are aware of the seriousness of climate change, expect more to follow in the years to come.
There will be more layoffs in the large AV companies.
The uncertain path to profitability is one of the reasons why GM will give up on Cruise.
Direct action and tactical urbanism are going to hit the mainstream. As Americans wake up to the fact that government is failing to provide basic services and move with necessary urgency on a variety of pressing issues, we expect to see more and more groups like L.A.'s Crosswalk Collective. It's the year of the lentil bean.
Photo by Brian van der Brug / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images
I think traffic deaths will start to decline compared to pandemic years and settle into a more normal pre-pandemic pattern. There will be more construction and orange barrels as Infrastructure Bill spending begins. Pete Buttigieg is expected to unveil a policy change. Engineers are told how to design streets in the Manual on Uniform Traffic Control Devices. There is a chance to reform traffic engineering and make it safer. EV sales will explode. Thanks to federal investments, the charging infrastructure will be online quickly. The new IRA law makes the price of a new internal combustion engine car the same as it is for a 2014–2018.
Direct action and tactical urbanism are going to hit the mainstream in a few years.
I would like to see more e-cargo bikes catching on. They are still expensive, even with state subsidies, but I think they are a really smart answer to how we can make micro mobility work for everyone. We need to make it easier for people to get their groceries home if we want them to stop going to the store. There will be a lot of e-scooters in 2023. You either have to find a way to turn a profit or run out of cash because investors are tired of subsidizing unprofitable firms. It's important to remember that a lot of how we get around develops in response to our built environment and urban policies, so I hope to see more people- and environment-centered planning moves.
Photo by Bill Tompkins / Getty Images
The rise of the home-office apartment complex is expected to happen this year. Larger floorplates and special features made for the large number of Americans who now work from home will be seen in new apartments being built nationwide. These apartments may feature soundproofed rooms, as well as wall displays that can be adjusted for a zoom background. Rentable meeting rooms can be found in the buildings. Major companies will work with developers to try to subsidize some of the higher rents.
It will be a year of reckoning for e-scooters, according to me.
We will see a continuation of many of the trends we have already been experiencing. Micromobility, e VTOLs, and the Boring Company are all big ideas that will fail to deliver. A narrative that the promise is finally starting to be realized, even as companies try to cover up the flaws that persist, will accompany the roll out of self-driving cars. Workers around the world will continue to fight for their rights, even though they will be fighting for their drivers' rights. I would like to see the end of cheap money, but I don't think we will be so fortunate. We will see continued progress on the things that make transport better, including redesigning streets, investing in transit, and expanding cycling infrastructure. Tech's big ideas are taking a back seat in favor of the basics.
The year of fear begins after the year of fear ends. Automation is not always close to everywhere, but it is too real for comfort for the professional class. There is an explosion in the amount of collective output in a way that feels overwhelming and disempowering. Customer support is going to disappear. If we want to rebook a ticket we need to be against the machines. The automated driving news from China caught us off guard. Congress passed a bill that gave companies a bit of a boost. The centralization that results from specific policy choices about automation is what the big story is about. We decry big companies and new technologies so much that an increasing number of people try to reject the automated world.
Workers around the world will continue to fight for their rights, even though they will be fighting for their drivers' rights.
It becomes a year of just calling out all the nonsense that is inundating us after that. There is a backlash to the hype about automation. They are actually pretty decent. The bill finally comes for companies that have been lying. Professionals insist that trucks can be automated, but their soft skills can't. Air travel seems to be working better for us.
Photo by Kelsey McClellan for The Verge
As professionals start to ponder job losses, they gain a new appreciation for values that are often left out of cost-benefit analyses and policy discussions. We ask not what we can do for technology, but what technology can do for us. An Office for People-Centered Transport has been created by the US DOT in order to create structures that can last longer than the current administration. Everyone agrees on an alternative to the termspedestrian andvulnerable road user. There is a surprising amount of support for NHTSA's rule-making for drunk driving detection. Some people with mobility impairments may benefit from a walking assistance robot. We are starting to see ground or aerial drones that follow behind, ahead, or above bicyclists to protect them from dangerous drivers.
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