I was shocked when I sat down with my laptop and wrote this post that it would be my last post. Last week, Dr. Steve Novella wrote a post that reminded me of the 15-year anniversary of this website. Yes, that is correct. On January 1, 2008, Steve introduced the science-based medicine blog with a post. He followed up with a post about the false dichotomy between plant-based medicine and pharmaceuticals to address a common misconception. Our readers have become familiar with concepts such as how randomized controlled clinical trials (RCTs) of homeopathy reveal the drawbacks of evidence-based medicine, thanks to the introduction of Dr. Kimball Atwood. Steve said that the Cleveland Clinic and the University of California, San Francisco, embraced "integrating" quackery and promoted a worthless treatment based on un. In the early years, this was the main concern.

When I read the post again, I cringed a bit, but I decided to use a quote from Stockdale who famously introduced himself during the first Vice Presidential debate. I don't know why I'm here. At the time, I was mostly unknown under my real name, but I had built a following on my not-so- secret other blog. It has been fifteen years since I was first on the site, and I am still in some ways not much better known and in others too well known. 15 years ago, I was invited to join this enterprise, and I still feel like that person. I'm not It's no longer possible. It won't happen after fifteen years. I sometimes feel like Aragorn in The Lord of the Rings as I deal with medical misinformation after 15 years. I hope to awaken the troops metaphorically.

Aragorn's speech

We want the troops to go into what looks like a futile battle.

The managing editor is me. In practice, I don't do a lot of actual editing, but I do mostly choose and edit guest posts. There's more on that later. I would be lying if I said that the landscape with respect to science and medicine has improved since we began this quixotic effort. I can look back and forward at this time. Steve focused on what we have accomplished and what is next. I am going to give some ideas on what to do next, as well as give some lessons learned from the Pandemic, which I think is the biggest challenge to the idea of a website and a blog.

Successes in context

Steve outlined some successes in his last post. There has been a new post every weekday and weekend for 15 years.

…we have published 4,328 articles covering just about every topic in the science of medicine. Hopefully we have at least added a useful voice to the much needed conversation surrounding how best to apply the latest science to the practice of medicine.

This is perhaps our greatest ongoing contribution and utility. SBM has become a resource for journalists looking for a science-based viewpoint for stories about various topics due to the fact that a number of our posts have ranked high in searches of various topics. Our Bloggers commentary is featured in many news stories. I had never been contacted by a reporter to speak about a medical story. I can say that it's not uncommon, even though I wouldn't say it's common. Sometimes my pearls of wisdom show up in stories as a result of my comments.

I have to agree with Steve when he writes.

It is, of course, very difficult to assess the impact of SBM. There is no way to know what the world would have been like had we not engaged in this project. There is no controlled experiment. We must make due with anecdotal evidence. We frequently hear from practitioners who find our articles and our perspective useful in their practice, even changing how they practice medicine. We are often a resource for the media who would otherwise have only promotional or gullible voices on topics involving pseudoscience in medicine. And we hear from many health care consumers who were able to make a much more informed decision before turning to “alternative” interventions. I like to think we even influenced the FDA and FTC when they were reconsidering their regulation of homeopathy. We also engaged with the NIH regarding their funding of pseudoscientific research.

Steve is probably correct when he says that the FDA and CDC are influenced. We collaborated with the Center for Inquiry to make comments to the regulatory agencies. As our only lawyer, I was proud to shine a light on the efforts of naturopaths and other practitioners of unscientific "medicine" to lobby state legislatures to license their pseudoscientific quackery. I like to think that frequent posts by Jann and me about " right-to-try" bills, which I first likened to the movie Dallas Buyers' Club, was a strategy to build momentum and make a difference.

It was coining and defining the term "science-based medicine" in the first place and introducing it into the discussion and hierarchy of medical evidence to point out how what we are doing is important. Mark put it 11 years ago when he rejoined the fold.

If you integrate fantasy with reality, you do not instantiate reality. If you mix cow pie with apple pie, it does not make the cow pie taste better; it makes the apple pie worse.

The first lesson is brought about by this. The Pandemic has shown us that SBM is more than just an approach to medicine.

Ivermectin: SBM could have prevented this

There is a line from an old song that I like to quote to the point of annoyance.

“You really think it’s all new,”” “You really think about it too,”” The old man scoffed as he spoke to me,

“I’ll tell you a thing or two”

The rest of the song is not in line with the idea that I am trying to convey about alternative medicine and the antivaccine movement. There is nothing new under the sun when it comes to antivax pseudoscience. There have been superficial changes in antivax messaging, such as the "clot shot," but they don't want you to know about them.

Peter Moran, who I used to lionize for his advocacy against cancer quackery but who over the last decade or so has become very sympathetic to the claims of unscientific medicine, said something that I agree with.

The HCO/Ivermectin episode was a blow-by-blow replay of all the factors that have given rise to CAM. That has never been a political partisan thing.

Peter denied the connections between various right-wing astroturf think tanks and the spread of ivermectin conspiracy theories. I'll talk about that later. Peter reminded me of two posts I wrote this year, the first in March and the second in April. The case of ivermectin proves that it was not.

If you want to read the whole thing, you can. The following versions follow, however. The reaction of those promoting ivermectin as a highly effective treatment reminded me of the approach to evidence long demonstrated by advocates of "complementary and alternative medicine" As more and more high-quality evidence failed to find a therapeutic effect for ivermectin for COVID-19, its advocates pointed to positive studies that are less rigorous. More and more high-quality studies with appropriate sham acupuncture placebo groups fail to find a benefit for acupuncture for treating anything.

I had to concede that ivermectin wasn't as implausible as some people think. The concept of altering the flow of "qi", a mystical life force "energy", by sticking needles into "meridians" has been used in the treatment of diseases. Ivermectin has been shown to be effective against the coronaviruses that cause COVID-19. Where does the implausibility originate? The drug was found in cell culture. Doesn't that mean that it could work in animals and humans?

The question is yes and no. The IC50 is the concentration that produces 50% of maximal inhibition of an activity and was in the 6 M. The concentration of ivermectin is approximately 66 times higher than the upper end of the range of blood. I was going to summarize the existing data.

This is almost certainly the reason that ivermectin doesn’t work against COVID-19 in spite of its activity in vitro against SARS-CoV-2. It requires a concentration roughly 66- to 197-fold higher than is safely achievable in the blood. That’s why the review concluded that maybe an ivermectin analogue that is either more active or can achieve a higher concentration safely in the bloodstream is worth investigating. Based on the proposed mechanism in the Australian paper, ivermectin was never a good candidate as a treatment for SARS-CoV-2. As I discussed for the claim that ivermectin should be considered a promising drug for COVID-19 based on its protease inhibitor activity, the situation is just as bad. Again, based on in vitro results, ivermectin was never a promising candidate as an antiviral drug to treat COVID-19.

I put it more succinctly on the social networking site.

Yup. As liked to say, it wasn't homeopathy-level implausibility, but it was highly implausible.

— David Gorski, MD, PhD (@gorskon) March 31, 2022

Also, that's right.

To accept that such a mechanism might be operative, the clinical trial results have to be highly compelling and pristine. None of the clinical trials for #ivermectin even came close to that standard.

— David Gorski, MD, PhD (@gorskon) March 31, 2022

If ivermectin were to be useful against COVID-19, it would have to work by a different mechanism than the one described in the study. It is possible that such a previously unknown mechanism is still alive and well. When the basic science dictates that a proposed treatment is highly implausible, the bar for clinical evidence should be raised proportionally. To overcome a mechanistic bar like that of ivermectin in cell culture, you need some really bullet proof clinical evidence. A treatment that doesn't work is a treatment that has a highly implausible mechanism of action.

I think that if the concept was invoked properly, it could prevent the waste of a lot of research money on large RCTs of ivermectin that ended up being negative. Conspiracy theories would not have helped with this problem.

Conspiracy theories über alles

One of the most intractable problems for SBM has been conspiracy theories, and regular readers know that. They began early. James Lyons-Weiler claimed to have broken the coronaviruses code in February 2020. It's possible that he hadn't. The conspiracy theory was the same one that has followed every epidemic of a new pathogen since there have been large labs. This was a very early version of the same conspiracy theory that continues to this day.

If there is one thing that I think SBM should be better equipped to address, it is conspiracy theories. The term "central conspiracy theory of the antivaccine movement" was once used by me. There is a very simple conspiracy theory that leads to many different variations. The simple version is that vaccines don't work and that they don't want you to know about it. Conspiracy theories about COVID-19 were flourishing by May 2020. Is anyone familiar with Plandemic? It seems like it's been over two and a half years. I argued that all science denial is a form of conspiracy theory after Steve pointed out the threat of conspiracy thinking.

The power of conspiracy theories when weaponized against science and medicine has been learned by Steve.

This phenomenon is nothing less than an existential threat, including to science and therefore SBM. But more broadly this is a threat to any notion of evidence, logic, facts, and reality. We need to take this threat seriously, and devote time and attention to figuring it out and mitigating it.

I have come to the conclusion that we will not be able to mitigate science denial of the sort that has resulted in millions of potentially avoidable deaths until we are able to understand conspiracy theories. The consequences of the conspiracy theory of science denial can be deadly if the climate continues to warm due to human activity.

Ideological misinformation, disinformation, and social media

There were ideological entities that promoted quackery and integration into medicine. The Bravewell Collaborative, the Samueli Institute, and any number of wealthy donors contributing to fund centers and departments of integrative medicine at academic medical centers are just some of the things we have written about. The groups seem quaint compared to what SBM has to contend with.

I am referring to groups such as the American Institute for Economic Research (AIER), which in October 2020 proposed a "let "er rip" strategy for the epidemic, with little or no help to stop the spread of the corona. The proposal was to sacrifice those at high risk in order to reopen the economy and make public health worse.

Jeffrey Tucker left AIER to found the Brownstone Institute. The Brownstone Institute quickly attracted a number of similar pundits, scientists, and physicians to promote a steady stream of anti- "lockdown" rants. The Brownstone Institute doesn't like collective action in the service of public health and portrays public health efforts as either Nazi or Communism. Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.'s Children's Health Defense, Joe Mercola's antivax messaging, and even at times Mike Adams are some of the groups that have taken their cue from.

The spread of misinformation and conspiracy theories is aided by the software that drives social media. This is something that has been going on for a long time. In the past, research about how antivaxxers were gaming Facebook against vaccine advocates was discussed, but these days it's worse than ever.

It's not just ideological entities promoting antivax and COVID-19 misinformation, but what would be considered a "mainstream" outlet.

The partisan imbalance among those promoting COVID-19 misinformation has made us reluctant to emphasize the importance of the best medical evidence.

Political vs. partisan

We don't claim to be a political organization. How can we credibly make such a claim when we regularly take positions that are inherently political, for example opposing right-to-try, licensing naturopaths and other quacks, and how the FDA licenses new medications? I like to describe us in this way. We try to remain nonpartisan and promote political policies and regulations that are based in and promote a high standard of scientific evidence for medicine. You can find the name of Senator Tom Harkin, who was the driving force behind the creation of the National Center for Complementary and Alternative Medicine. The antivaccine movement and believers in alternative medicine were stereotyped back then as being mostly of the hippie persuasion.

Survey evidence indicated that support for school vaccine mandates was the same on the right and left. It was then. Back in Jenny McCarthy's heyday as the celebrity face of the antivaccine movement, it was the heavy representation of celebrities among famous antivaxxers that contributed to the public perception that the antivaccine movement was mostly left wing. It is true that areas with a lot of affluent people on the coasts used to have a lot of vaccine-preventable illnesses in the past due to low vaccine use. Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. was there.

There was always a group of people who were back to nature. There has always been a libertarian right wing component to the antivaccine movement, such as the Natural Solutions Foundation, and others with extreme distrust of the government. The health freedom movement has tended to be antivaccine.

The elephant in the room is how much of the antivaccine movement comes from the far right and how much comes from the political right. This is a culmination of a drift that started over a decade ago. The anti-vaccine PSA campaign was one of the topics that Fox News aired sympathetic segments on. In the 1990s and early 2000s, Rep. Dan Burton held "hearings" about the vaccine-autism link.

The Canary Party began working with Tea Party groups in California. The Canary Party became known for sucking up to Rep. Darrell Issa, with one of its major financial backers giving a lot of money to his campaign in order to buy influence and get a hearing. At the right-wing Libertarian Freedom Fest in 2012 I was able to watch a debate between Steve Novella and the man who was the subject of the vaccine debate. At the debate, vaccine pseudoscience flowed freely from Whitaker in a most embarrassing fashion, and I couldn't help but note that Freedom Fest that year featured two screenings of The Greater Good and had featured antivaccine talks in the past. In retrospect, the conspiracy theories about the gold standard and New World Order seem almost quaint, as I was amazed at the merchandise and conspiracy theories being promoted.

Peter Moran said something other than this.

Antivax sentiments and mandate resistance have never required political underpinnings.

And.

Perhaps familiarity — sheer repetition in a nurturing tribal environment — alongside a little political bias can give such nonsense a veneer of truth.

The first part isn't actually true. I don't know what I'm talking about. Unless you consider politics separate from ideology, it's hard to say that antivax sentiment is not tied to ideology The second part is not what Peter intended. There is good evidence to support the contention that a network of right wing groups are supporting the spread of antivax misinformation. It is likely that repetition in a nurturing tribal environment can give misinformation. The story of Jim Laidler and the appeal of being a medical apostate were some of the things we were writing about.

The left is not able to promote medical misinformation. It definitely is. The problem is that the primary forces promoting antivaccine, anti-public health, and COVID-19 are currently right wing, often far right wing.

We are no longer going to be able to avoid charges of being partisan if we continue to advocate for interventions and policies based in science-based medicine. This is a problem that we struggle to deal with because we haven't had to deal with this before, and other areas of SBM are also becoming partisan in a way that we haven't had to deal with before. Our message will be rejected out of hand due to the perception that we are somehow far left wing and highly "woke"

I would be lying if I didn't say that I'm struggling with how to deal with this development, because the only way to be seen as non partisan would be to soft peddle our advocacy for certain policies. At the same time, we need to reach everyone who is reachable, and the fusion of COVID-19 quacks and antivaxxers with right wing political movements makes it a huge challenge. It's not possible to know if the partisan landscape will change someday, which means that we have to be consistent.

I think the best solution for now is to promote the best science that we can and to criticize those who promote pseudoscience, quackery, and conspiracy theories, regardless of their ideology or partisan politics. We have to be careful not to offend those who might be inclined to embrace the misinformation that is associated with one partisan side of the political spectrum, regardless of my politics. It might be difficult to balance it out and that might be the case. How do we not do anything more than preach? Preaching to the choir is not a bad thing since it provides science advocates tools to communicate science and counter medical misinformation, but it isn't enough by itself.

SBM and the future since the pandemic

The landscape of medical misinformation is very different than it was fifteen years ago. The question was added, "Who could possibly have predicted this?" as I wrote at the beginning of the year. There isn't anything new under the sun. Misinformation about medicine, quackery, and vaccines follow an old script that dates back decades, if not centuries, and appeals to the idea that one can will oneself to health. Those who are interested should refer to my post a year ago.

Critical thinking skills need to be taught to the next generation in order to combat this threat. We need to explore strategies for doing this earlier in medical school as it is not just physicians who need it. I think that SBM needs help. We have tried to recruit guest bloggers to fill in the gaps, but they are still not available. We don't have the expertise in women's health, psychiatry, epidemiology, and a number of medical subspecialties. In these areas, guest posts are always welcome, but we need regular contributors to join us.

Science communication needs to be emphasized more in regards tobunking. The combination of social and old media causes misinformation to fly so fast and furious that it is hard to counter them all. To inoculate people against new forms of misinformation, we need to be more proactive about educating about the conspiracy theories at the root of nearly all of it, and why it is being promoted.

I'm not getting any older. It's hard for me to believe that I've just turned 60. When our 30th anniversary rolls around, I will be 75. I can't do this forever and neither can Steve, who is younger than me but not that young. We need to nurture the next generation so that one day we can hand over the reins to someone else. Problems of quackery, medical misinformation, and conspiracy theories are not going away soon. The mission can no longer be done after Steve. You think it's all new?

Sometimes, we feel as though we are trying to rouse the troops, like Aragorn at the Black Gate of Mordor, to fight what seems like a lost cause.

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Dr. Hall is teaching a video course.

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