The signature calling card of climate breakdown will be disruptive weather due to the relentless increase in global heating.
It was one of the hottest years on the planet. The El Nio Southern Oscillation was in its cool phase when this happened. The waters of the equator are cooler than normal during the La Nia phase.
La Nia keeps a lid on global temperatures. We have been spared the worst despite the recent heat waves and fires. The waters of the equatorial Pacific will become much warmer once La Nia ends and El Nio arrives. The extreme weather that has wreaked havoc on our planet in the last two years will be meaningless when it happens.
La Nia will be one of the longest on record if current forecasts are to be believed. The equator will warm again. If it becomes hot enough for an El Nio to form, it will be the hottest year on record.
A global average temperature rise of 1.5C is considered a guardrail beyond which climate breakdown will become dangerous. Our once stable climate will begin to collapse in earnest, affecting everyone, and insinuating itself into every aspect of our lives. It was 1.2C in 2021, compared to the 1850–1900 average, and 1.36C in 2019.
What will this tell us? The record for the highest recorded temperature in California's Death Valley was shattered. In the Middle East or South Asia, the temperature could reach 55C.
Crop yields will be slashed in many parts of the world as a result of high temperatures. Extreme weather led to reduced harvests in China, India, South America, and Europe. Another round of poor harvests is possible because stocks are likely to be lower than normal. Civil unrest could be caused by food shortages in most countries, while rising prices in developed countries will cause inflation and the cost of living crisis.
The Southwest United States will be one of the worst affected areas. Power generation capacity at the Hoover Dam has fallen by almost half because of the long dry spell in this area. The Glen Canyon Dam on Lake Powell is expected to stop generating power in three years if the weather continues to dry up. It's possible that the Hoover Dam will follow suit in a few years. Water and power are provided for millions of people in seven states. The breakdown of this supply would have dire consequences for the region.
Hurricane activity can be expected to increase as La Nia fades, because it tends to limit the development of hurricanes in the Atlantic. Extreme heating of the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico surface waters is possible due to the higher global temperatures in the years to come. Should a major US city be wiped out by a super-hurricane, this would favor the formation and persistence of powerful winds and storm surge. The most direct hit in recent years was Hurricane Andrew in 1992, which destroyed more than 60,000 homes and damaged another 125,000. The consequences of a city getting in the way of a superstorm in 2023 are likely to be catastrophic due to the fact that Hurricanes today are both more powerful and wet.
All Rights Reserved © 2024
