It was the start of a new "crypto winter" with high-profile companies collapsing and prices of digital currencies crashing spectacularly. The events of the year made it difficult for investors to predict the price of the virtual currency.
Pundits made a lot of predictions about where bitcoin was going. They were often positive, but a few correctly predicted the coin's decline.
High-profile company and project failures sent shock waves across the industry and many market watchers were surprised.
The collapse of terraUSD was supposed to be pegged to the U.S. dollar. The failure of terraUSD brought down its sister token luna.
Three Arrows Capital filed for bankruptcy because of its exposure to terraUSD.
Sam Bankman- Fried, an executive who was often in the spotlight, ran the FTX exchange which collapsed in November. The repercussions from FTX are still being felt.
On top of that, investors have had to contend with rising interest rates, which have put pressure on risk assets.
Since hitting its all-time high of $69,000 in November 2021, the value of the entire cripto market has been wiped off. The price of the virtual currency was just under $17,000 on Friday.
CNBC reached out to the people behind some of the boldest price calls on the digital currency, asking them how they got it wrong, and if the events of the year have changed their outlook.
Tim Draper predicted at a tech conference in Amsterdam that the price of bitcoins would reach $250,000 a coin by the end of the year. The famed Silicon Valley investor wore a purple tie and rapped about the digital currency.
Four years later, it looks like it won't happen. He told CNBC $250,000 is still his number, but he is increasing his prediction by six months.
He told CNBC via email that he expects a flight to quality and decentralized digital currency.
It would take a 1,400% rally from the current price for the prediction to be true. Despite the demise of notable players in the market like FTX, there are still a lot of women who are interested in the digital currency.
The dam is about to break due to the fact that women control 80% of retail spending and only 1 in 7 digital wallet are held by women.
Antoni Trenchev, the CEO of Nexo, told CNBC in April that the world's biggestcryptocurrencies could surge above $100,000 within a year. Even though he has four months to go, Trenchev doesn't think it will happen soon.
It was on a positive path with institutional adoption growing, but there were a few major forces that interfered.
I am pleasantly surprised by the stability of the prices, but I do not think we are out of the woods yet and that the second and third order effects are still to play out, so I am somewhat skeptical as to a V-shape recovery.
He says he no longer makes price predictions. He said his advice to everyone remained the same. If you get a single digit percentage point of your investable assets in bitcoins, do not look at it for at least 5 years. I would like to say thank you later.
The former CEO of a Swiss bank that is focused on cryptocurrencies said his company had an internal valuation model of between $50,000 and $75,000 for the virtual currency.
The price would be driven higher by institutional investors.
The price of the virtual currency was between $42,000 and $45,000. It didn't reach $50,000 in the year 2000.
In response to CNBC questions about what went wrong with the call, the executive ran his own advisory and investment firm.
A shock to the paradigm of world order and the financial markets was caused by the war in Ukraine.
The realization that interest rates are still the driver of most asset classes was one of the main factors.
The lack of risk management is one of the factors affecting prices.
The executive said that it will reach $75,000 in the future, but that it's all a matter of timing.
Since the beginning of the crisis, I believe that BTC has proved its resilience.
In an interview with CNBC in April, Paolo Ardoino, chief technology officer of Bitfinex and Tether, said that he expected the price of the virtual currency to fall below $40,000.
He said at the time that he was a bullish person on the coin.
On the day of the interview, the price of the virtual currency was over $41,000. The initial part of Ardoino's call was correct. It never came back.
Ardoino said in a follow-up email this month that he believes in the resilience of the digital currency.
Predictings are difficult. He told CNBC that no one could have predicted how many companies would fail.
There are legitimate concerns and questions surrounding the future of the coin. The technologies developed behind it are amazing.
One of the key themes in the year is the correlation between the U.S. stock index and the digital currency. According to a note published in June by analysts atDeutsche Bank, the price of the digital currency could reach $27,000 by year's end. At the time of the note, the price of the virtual currency was less than $20,000.
It was based on the belief that the S&P 500 would increase in value by the end of the year.
That call isn't likely to happen.
According to one of the authors of the initial report, the bank now expects the digital currency to be worth $21,000 by the year's end.
Laboure told CNBC that high inflation, monetary tightening, and slow economic growth have put downward pressure on thecryptocurrencies.
Sentiment continues to be hit by high-profile collapses.
The community suffers a confidence crisis when a major player fails.
Conflicts of interest, transparency, and lack of reliable data are some of the biggest hurdles to overcome in the world of cryptocurrencies. The FTX collapse reminds us that the problems are not solved.
In a research note, Panigirtzoglou and his team predicted the price of the digital currency would fall to $13,000. They said the FTX crisis would cause a new phase of deleveraging and put downward pressure on prices.
The analysts said that the cost of producing new bitcoins historically acts as a floor for the price of the virtual currency. It is not as far off as some other predictions, but it is still much lower than Friday's price.
Panigirtzoglos isn't available to comment further on his research team's forecast
The world's top digital currency is likely to tank as low as $13,000 according to Ian Harnett.
Explaining his bearish call at the time, Harnett said that in previous rallies, bitcoin had fallen from all-time highs. After hitting a peak of nearly $20,000 in late 2017, the token plummeted to a low of $3,000 last year.
The target is closer than most, but it would take another 22% drop in price for it to reach it.
When asked about how he felt about the call, Harnett said he was very happy to suggest that the bubble was deflating and that a drop close to $13,000 is still on the cards.
He said that bubbles usually see 80% reversals.
With the U.S. Federal Reserve likely to raise interest rates further next year, an extended drop below $13,000 to $12,000 or even $10,000 next can't be ruled out.
There is no intrinsic valuation model for this asset, which means that there is a chance that this could trade lower if there is a failure of other digital entities.
One of the more accurate predictors is Mark Mobius.
He told Financial News in May that when the price was above $28,000, it would likely fall to $20,000, then bounce, but eventually go down to $10,000.
After falling below $20,000 in June, it bounced back in August, but then fell again through the rest of the year.
The mark was not reached.
He told CNBC that he expects the digital currency to hit $10,000 in the next five years.
In December of 2021, a month after the all-time high, Carol Alexander, professor of finance at Sussex University, said she expected the price of the digital currency to fall to $10,000 or more.
The price of the digital currency had fallen from its record high. Many talking heads at the time predicted more gains. Alexander was one of the few people who spoke against the tide.
She said that if she were an investor she would think about withdrawing her money from the virtual currency. Her bearish call was based on the idea that bitcoin is used for speculative purposes.
Alexander is happy that her prediction was correct. She said that her predictions were close to others.
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