Americans are about to embark on another holiday travel season in the midst of a viral onslaught.
New, immune evasive versions of the Omicron variant are spreading, and Covid-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths are once again rising. The coronaviruses is one of several seasonal viruses that have come roaring back this year.
Peter Graven, who directs the office of advanced analytic at Oregon Health & Science University, said that they have some makeup work to do.
The flu and R.S.V., which are respiratory syncytialviruses, hit early and hard this fall, causing major outbreaks that are now overlap with a resurgence of the coronaviruses. The viral pileup has already set off an exhausting season of sickness, causing sky-high demand for pain and fever relief, and pushing children's hospitals to the brink.
Each of the Viruses is on a different path. In most parts of the country, R.S.V. has already peaked and the flu is on the rise. Cases are likely to continue rising as Covid continues to ramp up.
There are more difficult weeks to come. Andrew Lover is an infectious disease epidemiologist at the school of public health and health sciences. There will be a lot of respiratory illness from all these sources.
Scientists said that it's not too late to get a Covid booster or a flu shot. Wearing masks in crowded indoor spaces, using rapid Covid tests before visiting vulnerable people, and staying home when unwell are some of the basic precautions experts recommend.
According to Dr. Graven, people are tired of hearing about it. People don't need to change their lives forever. We are not in a great spot right now.
Scientists are hopeful that next winter will be better, noting that this brutal season is an unfortunate result of several years of Pandemic precautions. Many people were spared from winter infections because of these measures.
Many children and adults missed out on the chance to build or bolster their immune defenses against flu and R.S.V., which will leave the viruses with an especially vulnerable population this fall.
Virginia Pitzer is an infectious disease epidemiologist at the Yale School of Public Health. It was worse than normal, but hopefully it won't happen again next year.
R.S.V., which can cause mild illness but can be fatal in older adults and young children, is the first virus to surge this autumn. Most children in the US have been exposed to the virus by the time they are two years old.
The virus usually peaks in the winter. In the month of September, cases of R.S.V. began to rise steeply, and by the end of November, hospitalization rates for children had reached the highest level since tracking began. The hospitalization rates for older adults have gone up.
According to estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, there have been at least 150,000 hospitalizations and 9,300 deaths due to the flu. For this time of year, the cumulative hospitalization rate is higher than it has been in the past.
Jeffrey Shaman is an infectious disease epidemiologist at Columbia University. He said that it was possible for the viruses to go to work early and cause a lot of problems. Early on, we are seeing large, marked outbreaks.
The United States and Europe may be seeing a rise in the number of cases of group A Streptococcusbacteria, or strep A. The recent surge in flu and R.S.V., which can leave people more vulnerable, may be related to these cases.
According to data from C.D.C., hospitalization rates and R.S.V. detections have fallen since November.
The R.S.V. season may have peaked in most parts of the country. There is a light at the end of the tunnel according to me.
Scientists said the trajectory of the flu surge is hard to discern. Some locations may see their flu peaks now that the levels of the virus are high. It still looks serious most of the time.
In parts of the South and the Mid-Atlantic States there are signs that conditions may be improving. The number of hospital admissions declined during the week that ended on December 10, compared with the previous week.
Several experts expressed hope that this year's early-starting flu season might also end early, with cases falling quickly as the virus finds fewer people to get sick with. Justin Lessler, an infectious disease epidemiologist at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, said, "It burns through all the people who are susceptible to disease or to infections and doesn't have as much fuel during the traditional season."
Flu cases could go on for a while. In a number of California communities, the amount of influenza present in the wastewater has stopped rising but remains high. She thinks that there are still a few infections.
Scientists said that there could be another flu scare later in the season.
Helen Chu is an infectious-disease physician and epidemiologist at the University of Washington. The optimistic view is that we will see a couple of later waves.
Covid-19 seems to be on the rise. The coronaviruses levels began increasing in early November and peaked around Thanksgiving. She said that levels are still moving upwards at most sites.
Over the past two weeks, Covid cases have increased by 24 percent, while hospitalizations have increased by 9 percent. On average, there are more than 400 Covid-related deaths a day.
Those figures are likely to rise further in the coming weeks, experts predicted, due to a combination of holiday travel, indoor gatherings, waning immunity and the spread of BQ.1 and B Q.1, two new, highly immune-evasive versions of Omicron. Scientists said that the subvariants don't seem to be causing more severe disease than earlier forms of Omicron.
The exact timing and size of a new Covid wave is hard to predict, with experts forecasting that cases might peak nationally between the end of December and early February. Most predicted that high levels of pre-existing immunity would keep the toll low.
There will be a noticeable peak in hospitalizations and deaths but nothing like what we have seen in the past two winters.
New variant emergence is still a wild card. The risk is theoretically increased by the explosion of cases in China. China's current outbreak may not have an impact on the rate at which new variant are emerging because the virus is so widespread.
It's too early to say if flu and R.S.V. will return to their normal patterns. Scientists said that not every winter will be like this one. There was an immunity gap during the last two years. Things will probably improve. She said that an R.S.V. vaccine could be available next winter.
The flu burden varies from year to year and Covid is likely to remain part of the winter mix.
The number of people with severe respiratory disease will go up every year because of that. I wouldn't be surprised if the burden from severe respiratory disease is going to be higher in the coming decade than it was a decade ago.
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