After a bye week, the Bears are back in action. The only advantage they have over the Eagles is that. Despite the obvious disparity in talent between the two teams, bettors seem to reach for the stars just as they did with the Texans last weekend.
Sixty five percent of bets on the Eagles-Bears moneyline went to Chicago. The Philadelphia Eagles are 9-point favorites over the Chicago Bears, the second largest spread of any team this week, behind only the Houston Texans. Why wouldn't they back the Houston Texans this week? The Texans lost money because they failed to beat the Cowboys. People think they can't possibly win now that they've got the Chiefs.
It isn't the same with the Bears. It is only a matter of time before Chicago is able to break through and win the game. It should be after a bye and against a team that many fans consider to be overhyped.
I am not suggesting that the Eagles are not good enough. They have had an easy schedule, but they have dominated in those games, just as good teams do. My belief isn't shared by many football fans. Several people with money on the line who saw Philly lose to the Commanders and barely beat the Green Bay Packers, Indianapolis Colts, and Arizona Cardinals believe that the Eagles are more fraudulent than the next big public investment. I don't think it's true.
His greatest attribute is his ability to move around. Fields' ability to change games through the air is hampered by the Bears lack of strong receiver. It is easier for Fields to change the momentum of games on the ground than it is for him. The Eagles have allowed only one rushing touchdown to quarterbacks all year, tying them for the third-fewest in the league. The Eagles allow a high 6.8 yards per rush from quarterbacks, but that doesn't seem to have an effect on the team's record. The Philadelphia Eagles have the best record in the league. Despite allowing 147 yards and two touchdown to Fields in their first meeting, the Lions still emerged victorious.
The Bears have something going for them. The Eagles defense currently ranks second in total yards allowed per game, and while Fields and company did beat the top-ranked defense, San Francisco, earlier in the season, that was Week 1, before the Niners found their footing. It is difficult to judge that game on any other basis. It can be seen as an outlier that the Bears only faced two other top 10 defenses all season, and both of them were against the Jets. We can't expect the Eagles to only score 14 points. Philadelphia has just one game this year where they score less than 20.
The Cowboys are the Eagles' toughest remaining game. It is possible that Philadelphia will overlook the Bears, focus too much on Dallas, and lose sight of what is in front of them. I don't think they'd be so smart. I think they would take a loss against Dallas if they beat Chicago. The Eagles would hold a game over Dallas for the lead.
In Week 15 there are a number of games with trap lines that are better to bet on as the favorite. Why are the Cowboys favored by four points against the Jags? It seems a bit low. It's only two weeks since the Bengals took down the Chiefs, but they're still three-point favorites over the Bolts. Why are the Ravens a three-point favorite at home? Vegas tends to know more about the game of football than the average consumer, so it's a good idea to see strange spreads. I don't think they're going to hit, but I will keep an eye on them this weekend.
There is a reason Vegas has set the line at greater than one possession and there is some reason to have faith in the Bears against the Eagles. Nine-point favorites have a small chance of winning at the beginning of a game, according to the Win Probability Calculator. Vegas still has the upper hand because the odds of the Bears winning are just plus 3.28-to-1. I like him as well. His greatness shouldn't distract you from your judgement.
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