US COVID death toll would be 4X higher without vaccines, modeling study finds

The US would have seen four times more deaths from the Pandemic virus, an additional 3 million lives lost, as well as nearly four times more hospitalizations, 1.5 times more infections, and an additional 1.5 trillion in medical bills without the COVID-19 vaccine.

The Commonwealth Fund studied the effects of COVID-19 in the US from December 2020 to November 2022.

The age-stratified model accounted for US demographic information, the prevalence of disease-enhancing comorbidities, social networks, limited social contact, and vaccine efficacy estimates. After removing vaccines from the scenario, the model was adjusted to replicate real-world data.

An earlier version of the model was published in the Journal of Global Health, estimating the effects of vaccine through March 2022. New estimates are extended to November and include waning immunity.

The model estimated that the vaccine prevented 3.25 million deaths with a 95 percent confidence interval. Averted hospitalizations were thought to be between 18.6 million and 19.35 million. The model estimated a dodge of more than 120 million infections.

The number of deaths, hospitalizations, and infections have gone up since vaccines were available. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, there have been over one million US deaths from COVID-19.

The study authors concluded that the pace at which vaccines were developed and deployed has saved many lives. Future hospitalizations and deaths will be avoided if the new booster is accelerated.

34 percent of people over the age of 65 have not received their updated booster.