Russia could disrupt oil markets if they penalize countries that abide by the $60 price cap, RBC's commodities chief says

Russia could penalize countries that abide by the $60 price cap on Russian crude if it chooses to do so.

Will the Russians make good on their threat to deny supplies to customers who pay at the cap? In an interview with CNBC on Monday, Croft pointed out that Russia had already cut off its gas supplies from nations that weren't paying in rubles. They have a history of disruption. Is it going to carry over to oil?

The EU has a cap on Russian oil at $60 per barrel on Friday. If Russia abides by the cap, it would allow the country to still use western services, like shipping insurance, which could keep Russian oil on the market.

Russian officials have threatened to cut supplies from any country that imposes a price cap, as well as supplies to any country that agrees to the G7 price cap mechanism.

The mechanism has received mixed responses from some countries. Japan will abide by the mechanism but will not accept imports from Sakhalin-2. India has been buying Russian oil since the invasion of Ukraine. The reopening of China's economy could lead it to ramp up purchases of Russian oil.

If Russia retaliates, supply on the market will be tight and oil prices will go up. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve oil sales are expected to end this month, which caused the price of oil to surge on Monday.

Western nations are still working out details of how to enforce the price cap mechanism, which has been criticized by industry experts. According to S&P Global analysts, the country has access to a shadow fleet of oil tanker and could be willing to ship oil with lower value insurance companies.