There is a storm in the Gulf of Mexico on September 28, 1992. There is a chance that the storm will bring a life threatening storm surge. The photo was taken by the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration.
There is a Senate election in Georgia. I have been keeping an eye on the weather forecasts for December 6th. I know to evaluate the evolving forecast but many people are guilty of anchoring Is that something you are guilty of?
anchoring bias is a term used for anchoring. The anchoring bias is represented in several ways. A cognitive bias that causes us to rely too heavily on the first piece of information we are given about a topic is described by the Decision Lab website. I observe this with the weather forecasts. We frequently see this with snow forecasts here in the South.
Even though weather systems are unpredictable, people will look at the forecast for 5 to 7 days and then anchor to that scenario. According to the Decision Lab website, when we are setting plans or making estimates about something, we interpret newer information from the reference point of our anchor. A bad decision can be shaped by that approach. The Lee County area was in the middle of uncertainty and under storm surge warnings days before the landfall of Hurricane Ian.
When you focus on one piece of information when making a decision, it's called anchoring bias. The site acknowledges that incorrect final estimates are often anchored to initial values. Uncertainty will always be present in the weather processes. Specific information at an exact location is not enough to justify the use of "percent chance of rain" and "hurricane cones of uncertainty"
Try to use the best practices from this point on.
There is a picture looking towards downtown Atlanta that shows the city during the throws. The city was covered in snow in the winter of 2014).
All Rights Reserved © 2024
