There is a chance that a whirlpool is the first sign of trouble for the American Southwest.
If the surface of Lake Powell drops another 38 feet, it could happen here. The surface would approach the top of eight underwater openings that allow river water to pass through the dam.
For the most important and interesting stories from The Washington Post, subscribe to the most newsletter.
The dam's operators say that the lake could turn into a funnel with water circling the openings.
If that happens, the massive turbine that generate electricity for 4.5 million people would have to shut down or be destroyed by air bubbles. A set of smaller, deeper and rarely used bypass tubes would be the only outlet for Colorado River water from the dam.
It was once unthinkable to have such an outcome here. As soon as July, the federal government could start work on that project.
There is a chance of an even worse event. If the water level goes all the way to the lowest holes, only a small amount of water could pass through the dam. Glen Canyon Dam would be transformed into a hulking concrete plug corking the Colorado River if such a scenario were to happen.
This year has seen an increase in anxiety about such outcomes, as the Southwest has been hit by a long- running dry spell. States and cities have faced restrictions on water use due to falling supplies. The Colorado River is the most important waterway in the region.
The 1,450 mile river begins in the Colorado Rockies and ends in Mexico. Major reservoirs such as Lake Powell and Lake Mead can be created by more than a dozen dams.
Scientists and dam operators say water temperatures in the Grand Canyon would hit a roller coaster, going frigid overnight and then heating up again, throwing the icon into turmoil. The surface of Lake Powell has fallen.
The rainbow trout fishery above Lees Ferry, as well as rafting trips through the Grand Canyon, would be at risk. The Colorado River basin's southern states and Mexico could eventually be the only place in the world where water escapes.
Bob Martin, deputy power manager at Glen Canyon Dam, peered down at the blue of Lake Powell from the rim of the dam.
It's - - -
It's a catastrophe for the whole system.
The Bureau of Reclamation said in August that it would support studies to find out if physical modifications could be made to Glen Canyon Dam to allow water to be released below critical elevations. Jack Schmidt is a Colorado River expert at Utah State University.
When he was the chief of the U.S. Geological Survey's Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center, he said that if anyone ever said that, they would be fired. A sea change tells you how different the world is.
The Biden administration called on the seven states of the Colorado River basin to cut water consumption by 2 to 4 million acre-feet in order to protect power generation and avoid such dire outcomes. Negotiations did not produce an agreement. The Interior Department missed its August deadline to reach an agreement and hasn't yet mandated those cuts.
These scenarios are beginning to be considered. The feasibility study was started because of the full Lake Powell. The entity that markets Glen Canyon's electricity, the Western Area Power Administration, is working with two national laboratories to assess what electricity will be available for purchase if Glen Canyon shuts down.
The city of Page, Arizona, with a population of 7,000, is at risk of losing its supply of drinking water.
Within the next two years, the chances of hitting the minimum power pool are part of the forecast. The warming climate and historic dry spell in the West has made the projections for the future of water in the region too optimistic.
The director of Arizona's Department of Water Resources said that climate change is forcing them to look at the extremes. We need to plan for the lowest end.
The statement said that it now relies on a more recent 30-year window - 1991 to 2020 - to make forecasts and that it will improve accuracy and remove some biases.
A dead pool is an elevation 120 feet below the threshold for producing power.
There is a chance. He said he couldn't tell you the likelihood. It would be an ecological disaster and the world would have its attention on that outcome.
He said you're not going to have a river if that happens. It would be a disaster.
It's - - -
There are huge problems for the canyon.
Lake Powell's once crowded boat ramps end in sand in the 23rd year of the Western dry spell. There are dirt bikes on the shores. Arches and rock formations that were lost in the 1960s are coming back to life.
The ability to produce power at Glen Canyon has been affected by the lower water levels. Dozens of Native American tribes, nonprofit rural electric cooperative, military bases, and small cities and towns across several southwestern states rely on the dam to generate power. If Glen Canyon could not generate enough power, these customers would have to buy it on the open market.
The standard rate is $30 per megawatt hour. The Colorado River Energy distributors faced high prices on the open market last summer.
Bryan Hill, the utility manager for Page, one of the cities that relies on the dam's low-cost hydropower for one-third to half of its electricity needs, said that it would be very damaging. It's huge for everyone. It's for businesses. It's for single mothers. It will be hard to make ends meet.
Electricity from Glen Canyon is important for the nation. The Palo Verde Generating Station in Arizona is the largest nuclear plant in the country. If the nuclear plant shuts down, the dam can bring it back online.
At the height of the heat wave in September, Glen Canyon sent 80megawatts of power to California, which helped the state avoid rolling power cuts. Adam Arellano, an executive with the Western Area Power Administration, said that it was the second time in the last few years that the dam was called on to ramp up.
He said that emergencies would happen more often without Glen Canyon Dam because of the small amount of electricity available during hot days. That is a very large thing.
When Martin began working at Glen Canyon eight years ago, the lake had already taken a toll and he never imagined a day when the turbine would stop spinning.
"Your focus is to keep these units running or keep them available to run, that's what you're trying to do," he said. It would go against everything you've dedicated your career to if it was quiet.
The four smaller tubes would cut the dam's capacity to release water in half. The Glen Canyon Institute wrote in a report in August that if the water levels continued to fall, the pipes would not be able to deliver the millions of acre-feet of water the lower basin states use each year.
It's not possible to deliver water at lower levels. Eric Balken is the executive director of the institute.
If the power pool is reached, Martin and others are planning ways to stay productive. They expect a surge in maintenance projects because it's much easier to complete when the turbine isn't spinning. He said it was like a farmer in the winter who didn't stop working.
He said that it would have been a maintenance nightmare to coordinate since the equipment was off. We are making lemonade with lemons.
It's - - -
There is a disrupted environment.
Julie was resting on a red rock in Waterholes Canyon. The 56-year-old Trader Joe's employee and her friends had been on the Colorado River for six hours, from Glen Canyon Dam to Lees Ferry.
She wanted to know how far to Lees Ferry from here.
He said it would take less than an hour if you stayed in the current.
She said it was quicker than the last time she did it. The water is not running fast because it is so low. It's a large amount of paddling.
Kennedy is the most knowledgeable person about those flows and their impact on fish and insect life in the Grand Canyon. He has been working at the Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center since 2002 and he has been watching this stretch of the river.
With Lake Powell so diminished, water temperatures have risen dramatically, from the high 40s when he started, to a record high of 70 degrees this summer, as water closer to the surface is now passing through the dam. Swimming is now common.
The fish's habitat has changed as well. Warming waters have helped the recovery of the humpback chub in the Grand Canyon, which was reclassified from threatened to endangered last year. The smallmouth bass is a new threat to native fish.
Kennedy said that this was the start of an invasion.
Dozens of these bass, including juvenile ones, have been caught this year in the first 15 miles below Lake Powell, prompting an effort to assess their numbers and block them from the Grand Canyon.
Ed Keable, the leader of Grand Canyon National Park, said in an interview that the smallmouth bass presents a clear and present danger to the humpback chub and other native fish in the canyon. Smallmouth bass may be able to reproduce within the entire river system for the first time due to the record-high temperatures.
The federal government has begun to fight back on a number of fronts. The renowned rainbow trout fishery and the lodges that serve it will be harmed by the methods to eliminate bass, according to some fishing guides.
Scientists and fishermen say that water temperatures have risen so high and dissolved oxygen levels have fallen that trout will be harmed. Dave Foster, a former scientist from the US Geological Survey who has been guiding fishermen for more than three decades, turned away clients this year after catching weakened trout. He's worried that an expanded effort will be another big blow.
The trout population will be negatively impacted. It's frightening to me.
If lake levels continue to fall, the trout and the chub could be given a reprieve. If the dam drops below the power pool, the water in the Grand Canyon will suddenly drop in temperature. Smallmouth bass are able to reproduce.
Kennedy said that going below power pool could be a good thing. If you get closer to the dead pool, you can get back to a place where there are good things happening and bad things happening.
It's - - -
Less like a river and more like a ditch.
Arguments against the lake have been going on for years. It's existence, to some, is an ecological atrocity. Despite having more than 3 million visitors last year, some argue it's pointless for water storage, power generation or the tourist economy.
Dan Beard was the Bureau of Reclamation's commissioner from 1993 to 1995 and he said that everyone keeps asking how to prevent it. He predicted that there would be dead pool in the next three years. Why should it not happen?
The federal government is doing everything it can to protect Lake Powell.
The amount of water that was to be released from the dam was reduced from 7.48 million to a record low 7 million. It moved more than half a million acres into Lake Powell. Lake Powell and Lake Mead are located in Nevada and Arizona and could be improved if the negotiations to cut more Colorado River use succeed.
The Interior Department said in October that it could revise the guidelines for regulating water use from Lake Powell and Lake Mead. The administration is committed to taking swift and decisive action to protect the Colorado River System.
The gravity of the threat makes it necessary for the states and federal government to cut water use.
Arellano, the WAPA executive, said he was very optimistic that they wouldn't go below power pool. This is the top issue for everyone in the industry.
The reservoir are vulnerable. Minimum power pool is estimated by the most recent five-year projection. Dry La Nia conditions are expected to continue over the next two years. There is no chance of reaching dead pool according to the reclamation. Over the next five years.
"If there was a line in Vegas, and I was a betting man, I think I'd probably bet we'll go below 3,490," said Charles Yackulic, a research statistician with the US Geological Survey.
As Glen Canyon dam is able to release less and less water, the change in the amount of water flowing at night or during the day would diminish. Life in the Grand Canyon is affected by the amount of water flowing through it.
The Colorado River would eventually become less like a river and more like an irrigation ditch.
There is related content.
The Nevada national monument is Biden's biggest yet.
A bipartisan group of senators voted to protect same-sex marriage.
You can add these cities to your itinerary.
All Rights Reserved © 2024
