Why China Is Still Stuck in a Zero-Covid Nightmare

After protesters in China took to the streets in defiance of the nation's zero- Covid policy, officials responded this week by affirming their strategy but promising changes to " reduce inconvenience". It is likely that not enough has been done to appease people who have been through a lot, including food shortages and economic hardship.

There is no clear path back to normal for China as it is caught in the tangles of its once-vaunted policy. According to the World Health Organization, China has recorded just over 30,000 deaths during the Pandemic, whereas the US has recorded more than one million deaths.

China has no long-term solutions due to its combination of leaning too heavily on lockdowns and failing to protect its older population with booster shots. The health care system would be overwhelmed if China opened suddenly.

People have attained close to no natural immunity after they recover from infections thanks to containment measures. According to Chinese officials, only 40 percent of people over the age of 80 have been fully vaccined, despite the fact that 1 billion people have been given the vaccine.

The full vaccination rate for the population is 90 percent. Pfizer was able to prevent Covid with their initial shot.

According to an analysis published in November, between 1.3 and 2.1 million people could die in China if the policy were to be suddenly lifted. China's current protection levels make it hard to do that.

Hong Kong's older residents have the same levels of natural immunity as China's. A study out of Hong Kong found that a third dose of Sinovac was 98% effective in preventing death. Sinovac isn't as effective at preventing death as it was previously thought. Better protection against the Omicron variant has been provided by Pfizer and Moderna.

Zero- Covid policies have been tried by other countries. Vietnam ended its policy in September of 2021. The strategy was abandoned by Australia and New Zealand in August and October, respectively. Linley says that there have been big waves with other zero- Covid countries. It goes up and down again. The first wave is dramatic.