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How Ohio State can still sneak into the CFP top 4 (0:41)

Heading into the conference championship weekend, what is at stake for USC and Ohio State? There is a 0:41

8:32 PM ET

The College Football Playoff selection committee won't be in a hurry. Early hotel checkouts and no lengthy debates are all that's required.

One conference championship win away from locking up those coveted four spots, the top four teams in the country. This will be the first time in the last two years that there won't be a top-five game during the title weekend. USC has a difficult game against Utah, while Michigan is playing a four-loss team.

Georgia is favored against LSU.

A win in the conference title game would put them in the same boat as Ohio State and Alabama.

Georgia and Michigan are in good shape for a top-four finish even if they lose. The committee had to balance Michigan's win against Ohio State with the worst loss of any contender. It would have the head to head against Ohio State.

A field that doesn't include Ohio State or Alabama is on the verge of being formed. Alabama, Clemson and Ohio State have claimed 17 of the 32 spots in the playoffs. Ohio State and Alabama did not win their divisions. Their jobs are done. Even if it beats three-loss North Carolina to win the Atlantic Coast Conference, it's still not a playoff contender.

Instead of two SEC teams, four different Power 5 conferences could be represented, with USC in position to finish in the top four for the first time in theCFP era. With USC facing Utah on Friday night, the selection committee will have a chance to watch the games in person. USC has a chance to redeem itself from a regular-season loss to the Utes by beating K-State for the second time this season.

It's going to take some help for the Ohio State or Alabama to get back into the conversation. The previous 32 teams in the top four in the second-to-last ranking have made the playoffs. In the final weekend of the year, five of the six that were lost.

If there are upsets when it's the most important, the fifth ranking will have an effect on the committee.

Jump to:

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/35140036/why-latest-college-football-playoff-ranking-matters#anger">Anger Index | https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/35140036/why-latest-college-football-playoff-ranking-matters#bracket">12-team bracket | https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/35140036/why-latest-college-football-playoff-ranking-matters#resumes">Résumés |

Ohio State is ready to pounce -- from their couches -- with an upset

The positions of Ohio State and Alabama are not expected to change on Sunday. If a team above them loses, the committee will consider the Ohio State Buckeyes. Losing to Utah would make it hard for the committee to justify USC as one of the four best teams in the country. Even though Utah just won the conference title, they aren't going to give them a bonus. Ohio State could move into the fourth spot. If the only upset is K-State, it gets more difficult.

Movement in the top four of the #CFBPlayoff rankings‼️

Alabama is the new No. 6 👀 pic.twitter.com/lomOz1eP2K

— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) November 30, 2022

What happens if No. 3 TCU loses?

The biggest question is what will happen if they lose. If K-State wins the Big 12 championship and the committee watches together, it will make it harder for Frogs to stay in the top four and bring Ohio State back into the conversation. It would have regular-season wins against K-State and Texas if it were still in the top spot. Ohio State won against Penn State and Notre Dame. If USC wins, it's possible that USC moves up to third, and if TCU loses, it's possible that they fall to fourth. If USC also loses, the chances of the Frogs remaining in the top four will increase. There is a chance that Alabama could also be considered. And still.

No. 6 Alabama's hopes are all but extinguished

Henry To'oTo'o and Alabama have a chance at the CFP, but it's a longshot at best. Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

If Alabama's hopes are going to be resurrected, it would likely take two losses by both USC and TCU, but that doesn't rule out the possibility of the two teams finishing in the top four. It helped Alabama that Mississippi State beat Ole Miss, which was one of the better wins of the season for the Tide. Alabama has one of its best wins at Texas. What's the best news for the Tide? The teams they lost to were ranked higher than them.

The American title game as de facto New Year's 6 play-in game

The winner of the Group of 5 league will get a spot in the New Year's Six bowl. The American Athletic Conference title game will be played on Saturday. There is a 59% chance that the game will be decided by a single point. The American Athletic Conference's top ranked team, Cincinnati, fell out of the rankings this week after it lost to Tulane.

Anger index

In the fifth season of "The Simpsons," Homer gets a spot on the space shuttle because his only competitor got drunk on champagne and flew off using a jet pack.

The NASA boss thinks Homer is the winner.

Homer said de-fault. There are two sweetest words in English.

It must've been great for the College Football Playoff committee to see how Ohio State, LSU, Clemson, and Oregon used Week 13 to get into the swing of things. Their job was easy because of it.

There is no need for outrage if the top four are already in place. Maybe we need to dig a bit deeper for this week's Anger index.

This is the first thing. The USCTrojans are ranked fourth.

We said the top four was clear. USC needs to be upset about something.

The ranking of the USC football team is good. The one-loss team is the top ranked one. The committee's decision to put Penn State at No. 8 made the margin of error for USC less than desirable.

Look at the applications. USC now has four wins over ranked teams. It lost to Utah by one point. That is a great sales pitch.

Ohio State has a sales pitch. There was a road victory over Penn State.

There is no question who should be the fourth team. If USC loses to Utah in the conference title game, Ohio State will be watching. What do you think will happen next? Is the committee going to punish the USC for playing an extra game for the sake of the playoffs?

The best case is that Ohio State beat the 8th ranked team in the country on the road. USC would not have a win like that. One small flaw: Who has Penn State beaten? No one made the top 25. The best win for the Nittany Lions was in Week 1 against the Boilermakers, in which they trailed into the final minutes. The other teams in the top 25 have at least two victories over the other teams in the top nine.

If Ohio State beats Penn State it will push them into the top four next week.

There are two The Tennessee Volunteers are in the top seven.

Hendon Hooker's season-ending injury no doubt played a role in the committee's ranking. Bryan Lynn-USA TODAY Sports

The state of Tennessee defeated the state of Alabama. Both LSU and Alabama were beaten by Tennessee. Both of Alabama's losses were to teams that the Tide didn't have to play. Why isn't the Volunteers ranked higher than Alabama? The committee has decided that the Volunteers need to be lowered completely because of the loss of QB Hooker. The assumption is that Tennessee has the best backup quarterback in the country.

There are three. The Troy Trojans are not ranked.

The winner of the American Athletic championship game will get to play in the New Year's Six, and it's hard to argue against it. Is that the University of Central Florida? Is it possible that a team lost to East Carolina by 21? The team lost at home to Navy. A team that needed a touchdown with 20 seconds to go to beat a team that wasn't very good. Why are the Knights in the running for a New Year's Six bowl over a Troy team that has a better record, a nine-game winning streak, and more losses? In the first week of the season, the USC lost to an Ole Miss team that was ranked all season until this poll, and a last-second loss to Appalachian State. Troy has a chance to win the Sun Belt title game against Coastal Carolina this week. It is a huge oversight that Troy is not in the discussion.

How a 12-team playoff would look

The College Football Playoff should be expanded to 12 teams in time for the 2024 season, according to everyone with the power.

Expansion is scheduled to start in the year 2026. While discussions continue on how to move up the timetable, we're taking a look at how a 12-team playoff would look today based on the model released by the Commissioners and Presidents.

The next six highest-ranked teams will be included in the field. The top four seeds will get a bye in the first round. The higher seeds will host the lower seeds in the first round, with the other eight teams playing at another location.

The playoffs would look like this if the format were in place.

There are seeds with byES.

1. Georgia 2. Michigan 3. TCU

4. USC

Remaining seeds are still alive.

(conference champs in bold)

5. Ohio State 6. Alabama 7. Tennessee 8. Penn State

9. Clemson

10. Kansas State 11. Utah

12. Tulane

There are games in the first round.

No. 12 Tulane at No. 5 Ohio State No. 11 Utah at No. 6 Alabama No. 10 Kansas State at No. 7 Tennessee

No. 9 Clemson at No. 8 Penn State

There are games in the quarter final.

No. 9 Clemson-No. 8 Penn State winner vs. No. 1 Georgia No. 10 Kansas State-No. 7 Tennessee winner vs. No. 2 Michigan No. 11 Utah-No. 6 Alabama winner vs. No. 3 TCU

No. 12 Tulane-No. 5 Ohio State winner vs. No. 4 USC

Top 6 résumés

No. 1 Georgia

The record is 12-0.

Biggest win: Nov. 5 vs. Tennessee

Last playoff appearance: 2022 CFP National championship, No. 3 Georgia 33, No. 1 Alabama 18

No. 2 Michigan

Michigan's win over Ohio State, powered by Donovan Edward's two long touchdown runs in the second half, put the Wolverines at No. 2 in the CFP ranking. Rick Osentoski/USA TODAY Sports

The record was 12-0 and the score was 2.

Biggest win: Nov. 26 at Ohio State, 45-23

Last playoff appearance: 2022 Playoff Semifinal at the Orange Bowl No. 3 Georgia 34, No. 2 Michigan 11

No. 3 TCU

There was a record of 12-0 and a record of 35.

Biggest win: Nov. 12 at Texas, 17-10

Last playoff appearance: Never

No. 4 USC

The record was 11-1.

Biggest win: Nov. 26 vs. Notre Dame, 38-27

Last playoff appearance: Never

No. 5 Ohio State

The record is 11-1

Biggest win: Oct. 29 at Penn State, 44-31

Last playoff appearance: 2021 CFP National Championship: No. 1 Alabama 52, No. 3 Ohio State 24

No. 6 Alabama

The record was 10-2 with an 80-162 success rate and a 50-162 failure rate.

Biggest win: Sept. 10 at Texas, 20-19

Last playoff appearance: 2022 CFP National Championship: No. 3 Georgia 33, No. 1 Alabama 18