The S&P 500 will be flat and have no earnings growth in 2023, even in a soft-landing scenario with 1% GDP gain, Goldman Sachs strategist says

Goldman's chief US equity strategist predicts that the US economy will grow by 1% next year.

The S&P 500 will decline 10% before it bounces back to 4,000, which is about where it is today, according to David Kostin.

You don't have earnings growth. If you will, you have a stable kind of valuation.

He said that in a hard landing scenario, S&P 500 earnings would decline by 9%, equating to $200 per share, against Goldman's baseline of $224. The hard-landing scenario would cause the S&P 500 to decline.

Think about that as your lowest point. Again that's a scenario, not a baseline, but a scenario as opposed to a market falling 10% to 2,600 before eventually recovering to 4,000.

In a note published on Monday, analysts atDeutsche Bank predicted that the S&P 500 would fall to 4,000 in the first half of next year and then rebound to 4,500 by the end of the year.

Earnings per share for the S&P 500 will fall to $195 in 2023 from $222 in 2022, according toDeutsche Bank.