Nobody in President Putin's inner circle expected the war to last long.
Moscow faces what is likely to be months more fighting, military losses and potential defeat, as the weather turns cold once again, and back to the freezing and muddy conditions that Russia's invading forces experienced at the beginning of the conflict.
Russian political analysts say that this will be a disaster for Putin and the Kremlin, who have banked Russia's global capital on winning the war against Ukraine. They told CNBC that people in Moscow were worried about how the war was going.
The head of political analysis firm R.Politik told CNBC that she sees a lot of changes in Russia since September.
For the first time since the war began, people are starting to consider the worst case scenario of Russia losing the war and being destroyed. She said that people are very anxious about what is happening.
Putin tried to distance himself from a series of humiliating defeats on the battlefield for Russia, first with the withdrawal from the Kyiv region in northern Ukraine, then the withdrawal from Kharkiv in northeastern Ukraine and finally the withdrawal from a chunk of Kherson in southern Ukraine. Even the most ardent Putin supporters were affected by the latest withdrawal.
Russian President Vladimir Putin on a screen at Red Square as he addresses a rally and a concert marking the annexation of four regions of Ukraine — Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia — in central Moscow on Sept. 30, 2022.Pro-Kremlin commentators have lambasted Russia's military command for the series of defeats while most have been careful not to criticize Putin directly, a dangerous move in a country where criticism of the war can land people in jail.
Putin is desperate not to lose the war, according to another analyst.
The fact that Russia is still fighting indicates that Putin wants to not lose. Matveev said that losing is not an option for him.
The problem for Russia will not be solved by tactical nuclear weapons. It is not possible to stop the military advances of the Ukrainian army. Tactical weapons can't make a big difference on the ground.
As the conflict drags on and losses mount, Putin is seen to have underestimated international support for Ukraine, and has looked increasingly vulnerable.
Over 88,000 Russian troops have been killed since the war started in February, according to the Ukrainian government. Russia rarely publishes its version of Russian deaths but the number is much lower. Russia's defense minister said in September that over 6,000 of its troops had been killed in the conflict.
Putin has become more vulnerable since the beginning of the war on February 24.
The steps make him more vulnerable. I don't think he could be a winner in the long run. There is no chance of him winning. She said that he is politically doomed.
Imagine if Zelenskyy said, "We have to capitulate, we sign all the demands by Russia, then in this case we can say that Putin can have a chance to reestablish his leadership inside of Russia."
She said that we could expect new failures.
The war has not gone Moscow's way so far, but it is believed that Putin's military commanders led the president to believe that the war would only last a few weeks.
Millions of people have fled the country due to the shelling of many villages, towns and cities.
The recent Russian strategy of bombing energy infrastructure across the country has made for extremely hostile living conditions for those that have stayed, as well as general energy and water shortages, just as the temperature plummets.
A destroyed van used by Russian forces, in Kherson, Ukraine, on Nov. 24, 2022.Russia has launched more than 16,000 missiles at Ukraine since the beginning of the invasion, with almost all of them hitting civilian targets, according to the defense minister.
Russia has admitted to targeting energy infrastructure but has denied targeting civilians. civilian deaths and injuries have been caused by Russian missiles and drones hitting these types of buildings.
Political and military analysts are wondering if we will see a last push before a period of stalemate sets in or if the current attritional battles will continue.
Fierce fighting in eastern Ukraine has been likened to the Battle of Verdun in World War I and the scarred landscape is reminiscent of that.
Analysts say that Putin is not likely to be deterred by a war of attrition.
He would not give up. He wouldn't change his goals in this war. According to R.Politik, he will not step back if the war ends in one day.
I don't think that the regime in Ukraine will change. She said it might take a couple of years if the regime in Russia changes.
She said that if Russia changed politically, it would rethink its goals in Ukraine.
According to Stanovaya, Russia will be able to secure at least a minimum of gains it can take from Ukrainian territory. It will have to retreat completely and with all the consequences for the Russian economy.
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