Some countries are benefiting from an influx of Russian migrants and their wealth as a result of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Georgia, a small former Soviet republic on Russia's southern border, has seen its economy boom as a result of the turmoil.
Reports say that at least 112,000 Russians have moved to Georgia this year. The first wave of almost 43,000 arrived in February, followed by a second wave in September.
A survey of 2,000 Russian migrants found that 26% of them left Russia in the initial wave. Most of the remaining Russian migrants have fled to Turkey.
The Georgian lari has risen 15% against the U.S. dollar so far this year as a result of the influx.
We’ve had double-digit growth, which no one expected.
The International Monetary Fund has raised its forecast for Georgia's economy to 10% growth in 2022.
There was a surge in immigration and financial flows caused by the war. Turkey is expected to grow 5% this year, while Armenia is expected to surge 11%, according to the International Monetary Fund.
Georgia has received a lot of capital inflow from Russia. In October alone, Russia accounted for more than half of Georgia's foreign capital flows.
The National Bank of Georgia says Russians transferred more than a billion dollars to Georgian accounts between February and October.
The number of bank accounts opened by Russians in Georgia almost doubled in September.
Georgia is an obvious entry point for Russians because of its historic and economic ties with Russia. Its immigration policy allows foreigners to live, work and set up businesses without visas.
The country has refused to enforce Western sanctions on the pariah state, leaving Russians and their money to move freely across its border.
According to government data, Turkey has granted residence permits to 118,626 Russians this year, while one fifth of its foreign property sales have been by Russians. When contacted by CNBC, the government of Armenia did not give any information on its migration figures or property purchases.
The impact on the economy has surprised many experts.
Both Ukrainian refugees and Russian emigres have fled to Georgia, a former Soviet republic with its own history of conflict with Russia, following that country’s Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine.The head of economic and social policy at the Institute for Development of Freedom of Information told CNBC that they had had double-digit growth.
A lot of the increase comes after the growth was destroyed by the coronaviruses. It's indicative of the economic activity of the new arrivals. It is more than 10 times the number of Russians who arrived in Georgia through the whole of the year.
They have a lot of activity. 42,000 randomly selected Russians wouldn't have had an impact on the Georgian economy. He said that the second wave was more likely to be motivated to leave by fear.
The new arrivals have had a noticeable impact on Georgia's housing market. Property prices in the capital, Tbilisi, rose 20% in September compared to the same month a year ago. Rents increased over the course of the year.
More than 12,000 new Russian companies were registered in Georgia in the first 11 months of this year, 13 times more than in the same period in the previous year.
The Georgian lari is at its highest point in three years.
The Kremlin could use their presence as a pretext for further interference or aggression.
The new outlook for Georgia is not popular among some people. Georgia fought a short war with Russia in 2008 and some Georgians fear that the arrival of Russians could have a negative impact on the country.
The Hudson Institute warns that the Kremlin could use their presence as a pretext for further interference or aggression.
"Boom turned bang" is when the Russian government and the pariah country of Georgia come after each other. In Georgia, the main concern is that.
Even though they are not a threat, the Kremlin may use this as a pretext to protect them. That is more important than the economic effect that may have.
Uncertainty appears to be taken into account by forecasters. The Georgian government and the National Bank expect the economy to slow.
Growth will fall to around 5% next year, according to the International Monetary Fund.
The International Monetary Fund said in a note earlier this month that it expects growth and inflation to slow in the years to come due to a combination of factors.
The Georgian government does not expect the Russians to stay.
Less than half of Russian migrants said at the time that they would stay in their initial host country for the rest of their lives. Almost one-fifth intended to move elsewhere, and just 3% intended to return to Russia.
The government and the National Bank are better off if we don't base our assumptions on people staying.
All Rights Reserved © 2024
