U.S. Renewable Energy Will Surge Past Coal and Nuclear by Year’s End

The United States is on track to get more power from renewable sources than from coal. Will they be able to grow fast enough to meet the country's climate goals?

The United States' ability to meet emission reductions sought by the Inflation Reduction Act is being questioned due to supply chain constraints and trade disputes. The Climate Law will cut emissions by 40 percent below 2005 levels.

The country's ability to double the rate of renewable installations over the record levels observed in 2020 and 2021, is dependent on the inflation reduction act.

Capacity additions are lost ground every year. Over time, it is going to be difficult to make that up. We blew the first few years of the transition, so we don't get to the outcomes we projected.

The U.S.'s renewable output is rising. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, wind and solar output are up 18 percent and 58 percent, respectively. By the end of the year, wind, solar and hydro are predicted to generate 22 percent of the US's electricity. It is more than coal and nuclear.

The year 2020 saw a decrease in energy generation due to the Covid-19 Pandemic.

To meet the United States' climate targets, wind and solar growth needs to continue at a rapid rate. The United States installed 25 gigawatts of solar and wind in 2020 and 2021.

The United States has installed 11 gig of wind and solar this year.

Steve Cicala believes the Inflation Reduction Act will spark a renewable boom. Economic certainty is provided by the law. In the past renewable subsidies had to be extended by Congress every few years.

There are limits to the law's impact. There needs to be transmission lines strung. There are a lot of projects attempting to connect to the power system. A number of wind, solar and battery projects are waiting to connect to the grid. The total capacity of the U.S. power system is over one thousand gigahertz.

It continues to grow and we get more capacity installed and output from renewable sources. It means less generation from fossil resources.

Coal will decline from 20 percent to 19 percent while gas will fall from 38 percent to 36 percent. The decline is due to a weaker economy, a cooler summer and growing renewables, which are projected to increase to 24 percent of U.S. power generation in the next five years.

Coal retirements have been delayed as utilities wait for new solar and wind farms to be built. Coal retirements have been delayed most by a few years. There will be more than 8 gig of coal retirements in the next five years.

How much coal plants actually run is one of the questions for climate. Their emissions impact will be limited if they are used less frequently to meet electricity demand.

If the coal plants are running more than that, it's bad news for the climate because coal is still the dominant source of emissions.

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