The following essay is covered in The Conversation, an online publication.
Since 1990 there have been many heavy snows in the Northeast. How can we reconcile the large snowstorms with the warming climate?
I'm a scientist. There are some theories that can explain the changes.
Warm air holds more water than cold air.
The atmosphere is similar to a sponge. Air holds about 4% more water for each degree increase in temperature. The relationship is explained by the Clausius-Clapyron relation.
The water cycle is being intensified by the increased atmospheric humidity. The Northeast and Mid-Atlantic have become more and more wet over time. Extreme events, like hurricanes and flooding rains, can be caused by more total precipitation over a season. The largest increase of any region of the US has been seen in the Northeast.
The winters in the Northeast in the early 1900s averaged 22 degrees. The average temperature over the last two decades is 26 degrees. There have been winters over 30 in the last few years.
We have an environment in the Northeast that is warm but still cold. The world that is cold enough for snow has warmed enough to now be visited by storms that can hold and drop more precipitation. The region gets a lot of snow.
The historic storm that buried Boston under 2 feet of snow was caused by ocean waters in the western Atlantic that are warmer than normal. A consistent pattern includes that.
The oceans have been absorbing more heat from the atmosphere than any other body of water. The oceans have more heat energy than ever before.
Scientists are trying to figure out if global warming is slowing the ocean conveyor belt of currents. Satellite imagery and ocean measurements show that warmer waters have been seen along the East Coast.
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Much of the energy for tropical and mid-latitude extra-tropical storms comes from the evaporated ocean water.
Tropical storm systems are powered by warm water while nor' easters gain energy from cold and warm air. Climate change may be playing a role in the recent increase in extreme snowfall events.
Recent research suggests that a warmingArctic, including declines in sea ice and snow cover, is influencing behavior of the polar vortex, a band of strong westerly winds that forms in the stratosphere between 10 and 30 miles above theArctic every winter The air is very cold.
The polar vortex tends to be weaker when it's warm in the northern part of the planet. In the past few decades, there have been more episodes of polar-vortex stretching, which has led to more severe winter weather in some places.
The enhanced warming to our north may be helping to shuttle cold air to the Eastern Seaboard during polar vortex disruptions, where the cold air can interact with warmer, moist air from the warmer-than- normal western Atlantic Ocean. Key ingredients for the historic storm were brought together by the most recent stretched polar vortex.
Climate models predict an increase in the most extreme snowfall events in the Northern Hemisphere. In some parts of the world, like Western Europe, there will be more winter rain than snow when the temperature goes up.
For the east coast of North America, as well as Northern Asia, winter is expected to be cold enough for storms to bring heavy snow. Climate models suggest that extreme snowfalls will become less intense in the second half of the century as more storms produce rain
Warming climate is expected to be the reason for the increase in winter storms. As climate change becomes more common, the U.S. will have to prepare for it.
The conversation published this article. The original article is worth a read.
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