Brazil has a 25 percent chance of winning the men's football World Cup, but the results are sobering for many other nations.
Alex Wilkins is a writer.
Maja Hitij is a member of the soccer team.
The Alan Turing Institute predicts that Brazil will win the World Cup in 2022. Brazil has a 1-in-4 chance and England has a 1 in 10 chance.
Many people, from bookmakers to bankers, have run models trying to predict the winner and loser of the men's football World Cup in Qatar, but most of these are not open to the public.
A model that people can run on their computers at home is being developed by the Alan Turing Institute.
Most of the things we do are made open source. People are encouraged to use our code and to contribute to it.
When Barlow and his team ran the tournament through 100,000 times, they found that Brazil won 25 percent of the time, with their next closest rivals being Belgium and Argentina.
The researchers adapted a common method used for matches in domestic leagues that gives teams a score for defence and attack to predict matches, but they changed their model to account for differences between the strength of teams that play each other in international.
They ran the model on past tournaments to see how well it matched up to real-world predictions, as well as giving more weight to the results of certain matches, like semifinals and finals.
Barlow and the researchers at the University of Innsbruck in Austria agree that Brazil are likely to win the World Cup and put their chances at 15 percent.
Different models have different predictions. Lloyd's used the collective insurable value of a team to predict that England would win the World Cup. Germany was predicted to win the men's World Cup by the same model.
Matthew Penn and his colleagues at the University of Oxford created a model that predicted the winner of the men's Euro 2020 with Italy and six other quarter-finalists. Goals scored and conceded are assumed to be evenly distributed.
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