Thomas Muller, James Rodriguez with his Golden Boot award and Harry Kane
Thomas Muller (left) in 2010, James Rodriguez (centre) in 2014 and Harry Kane (right) in 2018 are the last three winners of the Golden Boot

The Golden Boot is the individual prize that goalscorers seek. There is a chance to become a football legend.

Some of the true greats, such as Eusebio, Gerd Muller and the BrazilianRonald, are included in the list.

In order to make a prediction of who will win the Golden Boot in the World Cup, we need to know what makes a Golden Boot winner.

From Stabile to Kane

There was no title for being the top scorer at the World Cup. It was branded as the golden shoe for the tournament in Spain in 1982. The award was given a football themed rebrand in 2010.

Over the course of 21 tournaments, 27 players have won the award.

World Cup Golden Boot winners - Guillermo Stabile (1930); Oldrich Nejedly (1934); Leonidas (1938); Ademir (1950); Sandor Kocsis (1954); Just Fontaine (1958); Florian Albert, Garrincha, Valentin Ivanov, Drazan Jerkovic, Leonel Sanchez, Vava (all 1962); Eusebio (1966); Gerd Muller (1970); Grzegorz Lato (1974); Mario Kempes (1978); Paolo Rossi (1982); Gary Lineker (1986); Salvatore Schillaci (1990); Oleg Salenko, Hristo Stoichkov (1994); Davor Suker (1998); Ronaldo (2002); Miroslav Klose (2006); Thomas Muller (2010); James Rodriguez (2014); Harry Kane (2018)

It is not likely anyone will match the goals haul of Just Fontaine at a single World Cup.

Fontaine scored 13 times in Sweden in the late 19th century. This came from just six games and included four goals in the third-place game against West Germany. France didn't make the final despite his efforts.

Only four goals are needed to win the Golden Boot, which was shared by six players in 1962, the first time in history that the award has gone to more than one player at a single tournament.

The boot went to the German forward due to his three assists.

This was in line with a rule that was brought in after the 1994 World Cup, which stated that players with the most goals will be separated by who scored the least penalties, and the player with the most assists.

No golden oldies

Winning Golden boots isn't a game of old men. Only one player over 30 has ever won the prize when the tournament in which they top-scored began, and that was the brilliant Davor Suker of Croatia, who was only five months past his 30th birthday.

The youngest Golden Boot winner was from Hungary, who was 20 years, 8 months and 15 days old at the start of the tournament.

At the start of the 2010 World Cup in South Africa, Thomas Muller was just 14 days old. He wants to become the first two time winner of the award.

Harry Kane with his Golden Boot award in 2018

Brazil lead the way

It makes sense that Brazil would have the most Golden Boot winners, since they have five World Cup trophy wins.

Argentina, England, Hungary, Italy and Russia are the only other countries with more than one win.

World Cup Golden Boot winners by nationality - Brazil (5); Germany (3); Argentina, England, Hungary, Italy, Russia (all 2); Bulgaria, Chile, Colombia, Croatia, Czechoslovakia, France, Poland, Portugal, Yugoslavia (all 1)

Most Golden Boot winners play football in Brazil. The last one came in 1962.

The ability and willingness of players to seek out new challenges overseas is illustrative of the shifting money and power in football, as evidenced by the fact that six of the 12 Golden Boot winners from 1978 onwards have played abroad.

Where Golden Boot winners were based - Brazil, Spain (both 4); Germany, Italy (both 3); England, France, Hungary (all 2); Argentina, Chile, Czechoslovakia, Poland, Portugal, Russia, Yugoslavia (1)

Four of the winners have hosted a World Cup. It is unlikely that we will see a home winner this time.

Experience and form

It's important to have experience when you're trying to win a Golden Boot.

Stabile hasn't had a player win the award since they didn't play for their country. Schillaci and Muller both had one and two caps before announcing themselves on the international stage.

Going into the World Cup, the most caps a winner has had is byRonaldo.

James Rodriguez

Schillaci, Muller and Salenko were the first to score for their country.

Golden boot winners have netted 11 times for their country. Sandor Kocsis of Hungary had the most with 37.

Most Golden Boot winners were in good shape for the World Cup. Only three players from 1966 onwards have scored less than double figures for their clubs in the season leading up to the tournament, and one of them was banned for two years and the other was injured.

The most goals scored in a league season before a World Cup is 38 by West Germany in 1969-1970.

18 - the average number of league goals scored by a Golden Boot winner for their club in the season before a World Cup

Only two Golden Boot winners have played for clubs that did not finish in the top four of their league before the World Cup.

In the tournament itself...

The more opportunities a player has to score, the better.

The only Golden Boot winner who didn't get out of the group stage was Salenko. Five of his six goals in the USA came in a single game.

World Cup stage reached by Golden Boot winner - Winner (5), finalist (4), semi-final (13), quarter-finals (4), last 16 (0), group stage (1)

Pick a winner...

Does this information allow us to predict who will take the Golden Boot this winter?

We used the data to narrow it down to those from the top eight favorites to win the tournament.

They need to be between the ages of 30 and 25 and will be based in Europe at a club in the top four of their league.

They should have at least 22 caps and 11 goals for their country and be in good goal scoring form for their club.

The players who come closest to fitting the bill are here.

PlayerCountryBasedAgeCaps/goalsClub pos.Club goals 22/23
Lautaro MartinezArgentinaItaly2540/2157
Kylian MbappeFranceFrance2359/28112
Serge GnabryGermanyGermany2736/2018
Leroy SaneGermanyGermany2647/1115
Harry KaneEnglandEngland2975/51412
NeymarBrazilFrance30121/75111
Alvaro MorataSpainSpain3057/2755
RicharlisonBrazilEngland2538/1740
Andre SilvaPortugalGermany2751/19152
Memphis DepayNetherlandsSpain2881/4221

Raj Dhunna provided the index and golden boot winners graphic.