What Would Asteroid Mining do to the World's Economy?

There was a huge surge in interest about a decade ago. The rise of the commercial space sector and the belief that harvesting resources from space would become a reality was the main reason for this. The future of resource exploitation and manufacturing is now being talked about seriously in the business sector, with many claiming that the future is in space The hopes did not come to fruition in the expected time frame.

There is little doubt that there will be a human presence in space. The potential impact of asteroid mining on the global economy was examined in a recent paper. They show how asteroid mining can be done in a way that is consistent with the Outer Space Treaty based on their assessment.

Three researchers from the Department of Computer Science at the University ofNottingham worked on the project. They are part of a research group that explores the intersection between mathematical modeling, artificial intelligence, and the social sciences. The paper describing their findings is going to be published.

The prospects of asteroid mining are dependent on the resources and growth of human civilization. Ensuring the survival of humanity and life on Earth is one of the reasons cited for this. The idea of preventing ecological collapse here on Earth through mining and manufacturing is one of the ideas being considered.

The two might be intertwined at the intuitive level according to Carl Sagan. He put it that way.

“The open road still softly calls, like a nearly forgotten song of childhood. We invest far-off places with a certain romance. The appeal, I suspect, has been meticulously crafted by natural selection as an essential element in our survival. Long summers, mild winters, rich harvests, plentiful game—none of them lasts forever. Your own life, or your band’s, or even your species’ might be owed to a restless few—drawn, by a craving they can hardly articulate or understand, to undiscovered lands and new worlds.”

Human growth has been happening ever since the Upper Paleolithic Era. Around 5000 to 12,000 years ago. The rapid proliferation of human societies and the growth of their impact on environmental systems worldwide has been seen in the period that followed the end of the 19th century. Humans are the single greatest driver of environmental changes on the planet, and by the mid-20th century, geologists began referring to the current era as the Anthropocene.

Thanks to the rise of the commercial space, the belief that humanity's future lies in space commands a large following. The industry is called New Space. The effects of climate change and the continued pressure to see enough resources to meet the needs of a growing population are two factors. The greatest challenge as we approach the mid-21st century will be providing for an estimated 10 billion people. If our future is to be certain, then off-world resources must be harnessed.

The demand for minerals is a major factor in ensuring resource abundance.

“Due to the fact that the total amount of minerals on the planet is finite, continuous advances in resource recovery technology cannot fundamentally solve the problem of mineral depletion. In this context, the significance of asteroid mining is becoming more apparent. Large asteroid mining companies (including Space X, Blue Origin, and others that already have a presence in this area) could create hostile competition. To prevent the disorderly expansion of capital and related industrial monopoly, it is necessary for the United Nations to establish relevant regulations.“

There are many calls for laws to be drafted to prevent cutthroat competition and ensure that mineral wealth is used for the good of all humans, in order to prevent asteroid mining and the future space economy from becoming a "Wild West" type situation. The Outer Space Treaty signed in 1967, between the U.S., the Soviet Union, and the U.K., was the most influential players in space at that time. The Treaty is the most important piece of space legislation that has ever been passed.

The Artemis Accords are a set of principles and best practices governing international partnerships to advance the Artemis Program. The purpose and scope of the Accords is to increase the safety of operations, reduce uncertainty, and promote the sustainable and beneficial use of space for all humans. He Sun said that the Treaty was a background to the analysis.

He said it reflected the concern of the United Nations about asteroid mining and the growing space power of companies. The UN is provided with improved programmatic policies to prevent the negative effects on global equity of possible scenarios.

The global situation and space exploration capabilities of different countries were assessed by He Sun and his colleagues. They created a model that would measure the impact of space mining on global equity and formulated policies that would ensure that everyone would share in the benefits. An analysis of six factors, including economic, education, science and technology, health, environment and social stability, was used to calculate the Unified Equity Index.

They took into account wealth inequality, GDP, unemployment, the average level of education, the number of patents and research expenditures, and environmental issues. They obtained an equity index for the world based on the country's UEI. They used the types of asteroids being mined to create a simulation of the impact.

Scientists use three broad categories to classify asteroids. C-type asteroids contain large amounts of carbon and are composed mainly of clay and silicate rocks, S-type asteroids are composed of silicate minerals and metal, and M-type asteroids are mostly composed of nickel- iron. Changing mineral values and which entities were involved were considered by them. He said that.

The impact of mining and equity is defined through a gray correlation matrix derived from mineral development data for a typical country over the last 50 years. The correlation matrix is used to bridge the impacts of asteroid mining. The impact of asteroid mining on global equity in the coming decades is predicted by using gray correlation coefficients, the scale of future plans for asteroid mining for each entity, and the change in equity for 20 countries over time.

The model they used looked at how the value of minerals would change between 20 and 25 years from now. Without regulation, the gap between space-competitive entities would increase profoundly and equity within nations would become grave. Specific recommendations were made for this purpose.

The updated version of the Outer Space Treaty should include the Mining Information Policy, Mineral Legacy Policy, Mutual Assistance Policy, Antitrust Policy, and Transaction Guidance Policy. If we don't exploit and distribute the resources wisely, the consequences will be severe.

He Sun and his colleagues made these recommendations with the caveat that asteroid mining isn't a good idea because of the high costs. A lot of work needs to be done before it can become an industry that will move resources to space and create a post-scarcity economy. The ability to process minerals in space cheaply and a further reduction in launch costs are included in this.

Multiple legal, ethical, and economic questions need to be addressed before asteroid mining can begin. These efforts are meant to prevent space from being turned into the next scramble for resources, territory, and imperial ventures. We need to make sure that space is not used for the benefit of the few if it is to be for everyone.

The Chinese researcher named the exoplanetWangshu andXihe, which means "moon goddess" and "sun goddess" in Chinese mythology. Deep learning models were used to research weak gravitational lensing at the Chinese Academy of Science.

ArXiv is further reading.