A Clash Over Degrees: How Hot Should Nations Allow the Earth to Get?

At last year's global climate talks in Glasgow, world leaders, scientists and chief executives rallied around a call to " keep 1.5 alive"

The goal of the Paris climate agreement is to stop global average temperatures from rising more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels. Scientists say the risk of climate catastrophes goes beyond that threshold.

1.5 is not going away.

At the United Nations climate summit that is underway in this Red Sea town, countries are clashing over whether to aim for the 1.5 degree target.

The United States and the European Union both agree that limiting warming to 1.5 degrees should be emphasized by any final agreement at the summit.

Negotiations from several industrialized countries show that a few nations, including China, have resisted efforts to keep the goal of 1.5 degrees. Failure to do so would be a major departure from last year's climate pact.

Mary Robinson is the former president of Ireland who leads a group of prominent former leaders called the Elders. The leaders of nearly 200 of the world's largest businesses and civil society groups signed a letter urging governments at the climate talks to stick with 1.5 degrees.

Ms. Robinson said that the temperature goal is a limit of safe living.

The dispute goes beyond the numbers. If global average temperatures reach 1.5 degrees, leaders of low-lying island nations say vast swaths of their territories will be washed away. It is a matter of survival for all vulnerable countries according to the environment minister of the country.

At a gathering of the world's 20 largest economies that is taking place in Indonesia this week, leaders said they were determined to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

With global carbon dioxide emissions reaching a record high this year, some are concerned that the 1.5 degree goal may not be possible. The planet has warmed an average of 1.1 degrees Celsius, compared with preindustrial levels, and under the current policies of national governments, the world is on pace to heat up 2.1 to 2 degrees Celsius this century.

The goal to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees is on life support according to the prime minister of the Bahamas. Even the best-case scenarios will mean almost unimaginable upheaval and tragedy.

Efforts to reduce the use of fossil fuels have been complicated by Russia's invasion ofUkraine. As natural gas prices soared, countries in Europe and elsewhere switched to burning coal, an even dirtier fossil fuel, and began investing in new natural gas infrastructure that could operate for decades to come Despite Western sanctions, Russian fuel exports continued as usual. Republicans in the US want to expand oil and gas production. A number of gas deals have been made with nations at COP 27.

Al Gore said in a speech on the opening day of the Egyptian summit that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees was almost impossible.

He said that any new fossil fuel development is incompatible with 1.5 degrees as the limit to the temperature increase.

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There is some uncertainty over what the world's climate goals should be. The pact said that nations should try to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

Half a degree doesn't sound like much, but every fraction of a degree of warming could mean tens of millions more people exposed to life threatening heat waves, water shortages and coastal flooding. Coral reefs and sea ice might still be present in a 1.5 degree world.

Raj Shah, the president of the Rockefeller Foundation, said that the consequences of climate change are vastly different in terms of food security and the ability to grow crops in certain parts of the world.

Keeping warming to 1.5 degrees would require drastic steps that would be costly, politically difficult and disruptive, and would require leaders of nearly all countries to act together. Scientists have calculated that they would need to cut fossil fuel emissions in half by the year 2030. It would take a complete remake of the transportation and electricity systems. The task gets harder as the year goes on.

To keep warming to 2 degrees, nations would have to cut emissions in half.

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The 1.5 goal has several concerns for China, according to Li Shuo. He said that it would put pressure on the Chinese government to adopt a more strict target for cutting greenhouse gases. The United States withdrawing from the fight against climate change would leave China to carry the load.

There is skepticism about the United States being able to fulfill its promise. On the other side, the Chinese will be held more accountable if the U.S. walks away.

There was no response from the Chinese delegation at COP 27.

India has been wary of focusing too much on the target of 1.5 degrees. To meet that goal, richer countries would have to cut their emissions more rapidly than they are doing and provide more financial aid to poor nations, potentially on the order of trillions of dollars. Wealthy governments haven't done that yet.

The Indian delegation refused to speak.

Even if nations agree to the 1.5 climate goal, some world leaders think it will be impossible. Words on paper don't mean anything when it comes to cutting emissions.

A campaign to reform the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund is being led by the prime minister of Barbados. She said that it wasn't enough to chant " 1.5 to stay alive" in hopes that it would change.

She said that she takes no pride in having to repeat it over and over again.

She said that after a year of record storms, floods and fires, nations need to cut carbon dioxide, methane and other gases that are trapping heat in the atmosphere.

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There are some positives to be found for the determined optimist.

The Inflation Reduction Act will pour $370 billion into low-carbon technologies like wind turbine, solar panels, nuclear power plants, hydrogen fuels, electric vehicles and electric heat pumps. The country's emissions will be cut by 40 percent by the year 2030.

Mr. Biden urged other nations to come up with plans to reduce their planet warming emissions quickly.

If we are going to win this fight, we need to align with the 1.5 degrees. We can't keep repeating our mistakes if we don't know the consequences of our actions.

The election of a environmentalist as the president of Brazil has cheered those who think 1.5 is still possible. The Amazon rainforest will be protected by Mr. Lula when he speaks at the climate summit. Jair Bolsonaro cut environmental programs and oversaw a rise in rainforest destruction.

The executive director of Amazon Watch said that there is an opportunity to protect the Amazon rainforest. We wouldn't have a chance for 1.5 if the Brazilian election went the other way.

In order to improve their energy security, more nations will invest in lower-emissions technologies this decade, according to the International Energy Agency. Global investment in clean energy is expected to more than double this year to more than $2 trillion a year by the year 2030.

The executive director of the Women's Earth and Climate Action Network said that the science shows that we can turn things around if we stop fossil fuel expansion. We can't give up, it's like an 11th-hour save.