Brazil haven't won the World Cup in a long time, but there is a good chance they will win it in 2022.
The South Americans have emerged as the favorites to win the World Cup for the sixth time. How will England and Wales do?
The prediction model estimates the probability of each match outcome by using betting market odds and the teamRanks.
Historical and recent performances are used to calculate the odds and rankings. The model takes into account the strength of the opponents and the difficulty of their path to the final by using match outcome probabilities.
Brazil has the best chance of winning. According to the model, the team with the highest probability of reaching the final is the five-time winners.
Argentina has the second-highest chance of winning the World Cup. They have a good chance of winning the trophy this year, as they are the favorites in Group C.
France, Spain, and England make up the top five that will compete at the World Cup.
Despite being the third overall favourite to win the tournament, it is France who have the highest chance of making it to the knockout stages.
The Croatians were beaten in the final of the competition. There is a 4% chance that Zlatko Dalic's side will make it back to the final.
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | Last-16 | QF | SF | Final | Winner |
| England | 62.9 | 22.9 | 10.3 | 4.0 | 85.7 | 56.0 | 30.9 | 17.0 | 8.7 |
| USA | 17.0 | 30.1 | 29.4 | 23.4 | 47.1 | 19.4 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| Wales | 13.9 | 28.4 | 31.3 | 26.5 | 42.2 | 16.9 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| Iran | 6.3 | 18.6 | 28.9 | 46.2 | 24.9 | 8.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| Data provided by Opta/Stats Perform (the numbers have been rounded up or down to one decimal place) |
The United Kingdom will have two teams in the World Cup for the first time since 1998 with England and Wales in Group B.
England has a high chance of topping the group and a low chance of winning the tournament. They are highly favored to make the quarter-finals. They have a 45% chance of reaching the last eight.
There is a chance that both British teams will make the knockout stages. The USA has a higher chance of progressing to the last 16 than Wales.
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