The 8 billionth human is expected to be born sometime today. I think it could be happening right now. Maybe it happened yesterday. According to a new report from the United Nations, we are entering a world with an estimated 8 billion people.
It is the first time in five years that we have added a billion people. Things have slowed down since then. Since 2020, the rate of global population growth has been under 1% per year.
We are not expected to collect our next billion for a long time. The UN predicts a global population of nearly 10 billion by the year 2020. According to the intergovernmental organization, the number of humans on Earth will peak in 2080.
There are many reasons that slowed population growth. Birth control access, education access, and gender equality all improve, making it easier for people to have children. Population trends tend to level out as people get more educated.
The number of births per woman has fallen for many countries. When mortality is low, two-thirds of the world population live in a place where the lifetime rate is less than 2.1 births per woman.
The UN report noted more than one shift. India is projected to surpass China as the most populous country in the world in the next few years. Future population increases are expected to come from eight countries: the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, and the Philippines. Despite setbacks from the covid-19 Pandemic, the global average life expectancy is expected to reach 77.2 years by the year 2040.
Extremists will be found on either side of the discussion. Scientists, philosophers, sociologists, and others have thought of an overpopulation crisis in modern history. In 1798, when there were just about 800 million people on the planet, Thomas Malthus published the essay "On the Principle of Population." The Population Bomb, written by Paul Erlich in 1960, made sweeping forecasts about world hunger so incorrect, that they had to repeat it. A population of 10 billion is assumed in the movie Ten Billion.
The projection of a limit to Earth's human population has been incorrect so far.
Famines in some places are the result of wars or political maneuvers rather than a shortage of food. Hunger is a problem of distribution and equity as our capacity to feed ourselves has accelerated. Quality of life and life expectancy have increased over time despite the fact that we have many more people on the planet.
Increasing human numbers may mean more opportunities for conflicts with other species and the health of our environment, but it doesn't have to be a foregone conclusion. There are sustainable solutions for energy and agriculture. It's just a matter of changing perspectives, attitudes and policies.
The environmental impact is not solely determined by the number of people in a place. The countries with the lowest population densities on the planet are Canada and Australia, and they are both on the list of counties with the largest per capita carbon dioxide emissions. The majority of people are responsible for climate change.
Those who fear total population collapse are also functioning under a weird set of assumptions. The UN predicts a leveling out of the human population. Japan and parts of Europe have already seen declines in their national population. That doesn't mean everything is broken. Coordination of care and health costs are challenges for an aging demographic.
In a press release about the report, the UN secretary general said, "This is an occasion to celebrate our diversity, recognize our common humanity, and marvel at the improvements in health that have extended lifespans and dramatically reduced maternal and child mortality rates." It's a reminder of our shared responsibility to care for our planet and a chance to reflect on where we still fall short of our commitments to one another.
Earth is a challenging place to live in. Don't blame the 8 billionth baby.
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