According to scientists at the United Nations Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP27) in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are projected to increase 1% in 2022. Humans could warm Earth to 1.5 C above pre-industrial temperatures in nine years if the trend continues. The Paris climate agreement sought to avoid the most serious consequences.
A member of the Global Carbon Project says that nine years is not very long. Climate models suggest that the world is likely to reach the 1.5 C threshold sometime in the 2030s, even with aggressive action, because there is no sign of a decrease that is needed to meet international goals.
As the world grapples with an energy crisis spurred by the war in Ukraine, and continues to recover from the COVID-19 epidemic, the emissions increase comes as well. European efforts to make up for the loss of natural-gas shipments from Russia is one of the factors that contributes to the increase in coal consumption. Air travel has led to an increase in oil consumption. This year's projected 1% increase in fossil CO 2 emissions is more than double the average growth rate of the past ten years.
India is the country with the fastest emissions growth due to rising coal and oil use. China, the world's largest emitter, is projected to reduce emissions by 1%, while the country's coal use is projected to remain flat. Scientists estimate that emissions from coal burning will increase by 1% and could set a new record, due to a renewed reliance on coal-fired power plants in India and Europe.
The director of Resources for the Future, an environmental think tank in Washington DC, says that the latest numbers are not surprising. If you have a growing economy and an economy reliant on fossil fuels, your emissions are going to grow.
Early signs of the clean energy transition are emerging. The shift from coal to natural gas is one of the reasons that the power sector is becoming cleaner. This year's rise in emissions from coal in Europe is likely to be a short-term blip. The transition to clean energy has been sped up by the energy crisis.
According to the analysis done by the Global Carbon Project, it would take a 4% annual reduction in carbon emissions to meet the goals of the Paris agreement. Le Quéré says that the emissions reductions witnessed in 2020 are similar to the reductions seen in 2020. The scale of the actions needed to tackle climate change is highlighted by this.
Glen Peters is a climate-policy researcher at the Center for International Climate Research in Norway who is part of the Global Carbon Project. Climate policies being implemented by governments are working to some degree.
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