As we prepare for Week 5 of the fantasy basketball season, here are a few musings from the Hoops Lab. As you prepare for this week's games, make sure to check the Fantasy Basketball Rest of Season Rankings on Mondays. Between the rankings and this article, we'll help you find some good Buy Low/ Sell high candidates. Let's start digging into it.
Steve Nash was fired by the Nets and Kyrie Irving played his last game before he was suspended. Through the first seven games of the season, the Nets were 0-7, allowing their opponents to average 118.6PPG on 48.0 FG%, 14.2 3PG on 41.2 3P%, and 19.9ft/G with 13.9 TO/G. It's shocking that the difference is so significant. Even though the Nets lost to the Lakers on Sunday, they have been fundamentally different since this new regime started.
The new Nets head coach emphasizes defense at a different level than Nash did. The schemes are not likely to be different because the rest of the staff did not change. The Nets' effort level at that end of the court has gone from zero to sky-high over the last two weeks.
It's obvious that personnel makes a big difference. Irving has been one of the worst defenders in the NBA. Irving has had a negative influence on his team's defense in four of the last five seasons. It's not that he's a defensive savant, but at 6-5 he's got great length for the position and he earned his way onto the team. Defense is the role that is currently being played.
The primary producers off the bench for the Nets have been Sumner, Joe Harris and Royce O' Neale. Simmons missed the first two games of the run with a knee injury and averaged only 18.1 minutes off the bench in the three games he's played.
Some of the questions that were already on the radar were brought up by this. Is Irving ever going to play in a Nets uniform again? Will he want to return to his role as an offensive lieutenant for a team that just tries to outscore their opponents or will he want to stick with the defensive minded approach that has worked so well?
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What will happen if Irving comes back? In the first seven games, he averaged 32.4 points per game and 4.2 APG, but in the five leading up to Sunday, he had yet to score 30 points in any game, but had a much larger role as a distributor, averaging 27.4 points per game with 6.4 APG Is he more valuable to fantasy basketball teams as a cheat-code scorer or a power triple-double threat?
What do you think about Simmons and Curry? Simmons was expected to settle into a role similar to the one he played for the 76ers, as the floor general and nightly triple-double threat. Simmons didn't start the season playing that way, but one would think that would open things up for him.
Instead, his role has been reduced and he's still dealing with his knee injury, which kept him out of the lineup again on Sunday. In the two games leading up to a load management/ ankle recovery day on Sunday, Curry and Thomas both averaged over 20 points per game.
A lot depends on Irving's availability to play. The entire direction of the team could be changed by his presence or absence.
On Sunday, the 76ers got a career-high 59 points from their big man. He had a double-double in an early candidate for best fantasy game of the season with 19 points, 11 assists and 7 blocked shots. He became the first player with 50 points, 10 rebound, 5 assists and 5 blocks in a game since blocks became a stat in 1973. Just the third player in the last 30 years to score 100 points in a back-to-back was added to the 42 points he scored on Saturday.
His odds of winning the award went from 22-1 to 12-1 in a single day.
Earlier in the day, Garland scored a career-high 51 points and led a furious fourth-quarter comeback against the Wolves, but it wasn't enough. Garland became the first player in the NBA to score 50 points in a single season, just minutes before the other.
It was the first time in NBA history that a player 6'1" or shorter and a player 7'2" or taller scored 50 points on the same day.
Both players have the talent for this type of scoring upside night in them but they are unlikely to achieve these types of heights unless their teammates are available. James Harden is out with a foot injury and won't be back until early next month. Both Mitchell and Allen missed Sunday's game. Garland entered Sunday with an average of 18.6 points per game in the five games he's played with Mitchell.
When their full teams are healthy, don't expect to see these types of explosions in them.
Garland becomes the sixth player in NBA history to score 50-plus points, 10-plus 3-pointers and five-plus assists.
Antetokounmpo has missed three of the last four games due to a knee injury. He is probable to return on Monday, so this isn't expected to be a major injury, but he missed a career-high 15 games last season because of knee issues.
I believe that Giannis is the best player in the NBA, and my updated fantasy points per game projections have him on top, but he is not always available. I have to adjust my projections to account for the chance that he'll miss time and keep him out of the top spot.
Another former multiple-time Most Valuable Player is sitting out on Sunday. On Wednesday against the Clippers, he injured his thigh and left the court. No timetable has been given for his return, and it's possible he could return as soon as Friday, but he has missed significant time in three of the last four seasons. It was always a risk to draft LeBron early. He's playing at a top-tier level on a per-game basis, but that doesn't help if he misses a lot of games.
If it's a best case scenario and he returns before public opinion sours on him, it might be a good idea to explore a trade if you can move him closer to his per-game value.
There are other impact players that are dealing with injury now that you've left the multiple-timeMVP tier. Jaren Jackson Jr. was listed as doubtful for the game because of a foot injury. Jackson, who was upgraded from 'out' to 'doubtful' on Sunday, is expected to be out for a long time. His trade value should be adjusted because he could be back soon.
Since Paolo scored 27 points with 9 rebound in his NBA debut, and in the last two games he played, he averaged 31.5PPG and 11.0RPG, he has set the world on fire. He has missed the last two games because of an ankle injury. In weekly transaction leagues where start/sit decisions have to be made on Monday for the entire week, he is listed as a game-time decision on Monday. If there is a chance that he could come back as soon as Monday, I would start him, even if he misses Monday. If you have him on your roster, you should listen to the most up-to-date news before making your decision.
On Saturday, Bradley's head coach told him that he would not play on Sunday due to conditioning. He needs a bit of time to get his wind in order and should be back soon.
Cunningham will be out for at least a week. He won't be back in action until later in the week. His best case scenario is a return on November 20 but you should keep an eye out for the latest information.
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