Philippe Ciais, Pierre Friedlingstein, and The Conversation.
Fossil fuel emissions have risen above pre-pandemic levels according to an international body of scientists.
The Global Carbon Project calculates the carbon budget, which is how much CO2 humans have released and how much has been removed from the atmosphere. We calculate how much carbon can be released into the atmosphere before the 1.5C global warming threshold is reached.
The world is expected to emit over 40 billion tons of CO2 this year, leaving over 400 billion tons of CO2 as the carbon budget. There is a 50% chance that the planet will reach the 1.5C global average temperature rise in nine years.
Significant progress has been made in reducing emissions from some sectors and countries. As world leaders gather for the COP 27 climate change summit in Egypt this week, the global effort remains vastly insufficient.
If we are to have any hope of avoiding the most catastrophic impacts of climate change, we need to cut global emissions immediately.
Coal and oil emissions are increasing.
According to preliminary data, CO2 emissions from coal, natural gas, oil, and cement use will increase by 1% in the years to come. Fossil emissions will be at an all-time high and slightly above pre-pandemic levels in 2019.
The growth of 1% is around 300 million metric ton.
Growth in fossil CO2 emissions is slowing down.
The growth in fossil emissions this year is largely due to higher oil and coal use.
Coal emissions have gone up this year due to higher natural gas prices. There is a chance that coal emissions will be higher than in the past.
Land use change is one of the main sources of CO2 emissions. Data uncertainties are higher for land-use change emissions than for fossil CO2 emissions.
Increased reforestation has led to a slight decline in land-use change emissions. Deforestation rates are still high around the world.
Fossil fuel and land-use change are the main contributors to CO2
Multiple turmoils are being responded to by nations.
The US and India have increased their fossil emissions the most.
US emissions are expected to go up. Coal emissions are on a downward trend. Coal use is expected to increase India's fossil CO2 emissions.
CO2 emissions from fossil fuel sources in China and the EU are expected to decline this year.
China's decline is due to the nation's continuing Pandemic lockdowns. The construction sector has slowed down and cement production has gone down.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine is projected to cause a 10% decline in the European Union's CO2 emissions from natural gas. Coal consumption has increased in Europe due to the partial replacement of the gas shortage.
The rest of the world accounts for 42% of global fossil CO2 emissions.
Net land-use change contributes to 42% of global CO2 emissions.
Carbon sinks get bigger.
The ocean and land act as CO2 sinks. CO2 is absorbed by the ocean as it moves through the water. Plants absorb CO2 and build it into their leaves and trunks.
Ocean and land are important parts of regulating the global climate. Our data shows that land and ocean sinks act like a 50% discount on climate change by removing half of all CO2 emissions.
The concentration of atmospheric CO2 continues to rise. It is projected to reach an average of 417.2 parts per million in the next four years. This is higher than any time in the past 600,000 years.
There is more CO2 in the atmosphere that causes carbon sinks to get bigger. The impacts of climate change have made land and ocean sinks smaller than they could have grown during the past two years.
Significant progress has been made this year in deployment of renewable energy, policy development, and commitments from governments and corporations.
We need to get net-zero CO2 emissions to keep global warming below 2C. The monumental and urgent task ahead is underscored by humanity's huge emissions in 2022.
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