The Republicans predicted a red wave that would crush the hopes of the Democrats. The prediction has been shattered as the votes are counted.
Democrats did better in battleground states where polls underestimated their support, like Florida and New York. On the eve of the election, FiveThirtyEight had Dr. Mehmet Oz in front by half a point, but he lost by 4%. In Michigan, the same average put the incumbent governor only five points ahead of her opponent, but she won by more than 10 points.
A record number of young people voting this year has been attributed to the discrepancy by many Democratic strategists. Around 27 percent of Americans between the ages of 18 and 29 voted by Election Day, according to an estimate from the Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement.
The youth voter turnout has hovered around 20 percent over the years. Youth turnout went up from 16 percent to 36 percent in a single year.
Some people are not sure. David Shor, a popular Democratic data guru, argued that there was no "Youthquake" since turnout among young people declined. According to early exit polls, young people turned out where it mattered the most for Democrats. Aggregate youth voter turnout reached 31 percent in Michigan and Pennsylvania, which is 1 percent higher than the national average.
There is a combination of technology and not enough information about what is happening in this country.
Max Lubin, CEO of Rise, a student-led nonprofit advocating for free college, said that it was a combination of technology and missing the story.
Over the last few years, there have been a lot of calls.
More than 6 billion phone calls were made to Americans in October alone, including 25 million political calls and 1.29 billion political text messages.
John Ray, director of polling at YouGov Blue, said that young people are more astute than other people. Discipline with their devices is improved.
Polling has evolved over the last decade to catch up with the rise of social media platforms in popularity with young people. Apple made changes to its privacy and third-party data permission last year, which resulted in a decrease in the accuracy of Meta's targeting tools.
Ray said that Facebook will probably be until the end of this upcoming cycle.
Political pollsters run on tighter budgets with more demand for accurate data returns, making it harder to reach younger audiences. Polling firms will have to adapt to new platforms if there are stricter online privacy regulations.
Ray said that people need to be figuring out what their strategy is for the two platforms. We are looking at more ways to get people to take surveys off of the channels they watch.
In the days leading up to the mid-term elections in 2022, the company put out a new lens that encouraged users to answer surveys that looked like exit polls. While the surveys aren't as scientific as those created by professional firms, the data gathered could be used to fill in the youth polling void.
Lubin said that pollsters were stuck in a mindset that young people wouldn't show up. Even though young people have broken turnout records over the last two years, pollsters are still stuck in their usual thinking.
Hundreds of students lined up for hours to vote in Michigan on Election Day. The governor's race was too close to call. They were neck and neck. According to The New York Times, Whitmer was reelected by a 10 point margin.
The Michigan Democratic Party's communications director said that polls are often wishcasting operations. It's going to take a lot of soul-searching for pollsters to stay relevant.
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