Firefighter tackling blazes in FranceImage source, Philippe Lopez

According to a new report, there is a 50% chance that the world will cross a crucial climate change threshold in the next few years.

People flying again after Covid are expected to lift emissions to new heights.

If emissions stay high, the world faces a 50% chance of breaching a key 1.5C temperature rise threshold in nine years.

Poorer and developing countries would suffer a lot from this.

Major climate disasters have already occurred this year because of the increase in average temperatures.

If global average temperatures rose to more than 1.5C, the UN says it would expose millions more people.

The use of coal and flying has led to a rise in emissions.

Monthly energy data was used to estimate that global greenhouse gas emissions will increase by 1% this year.

A recent UN report stated that global emissions need to fall by 45% by the year 2030.

Efforts were made to limit global temperature rises to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said keeping temperature rises below 1.5C would mean.

  • 10 million fewer people would lose their homes to rising sea levels
  • a 50% reduction in the number of people experiencing water insecurity
  • a reduction in coral reef loss from 99% to 70%

At the UN climate summit in the Egyptian resort of Sharm el-Sheikh, a report prepared by more than 70 scientists is going to be launched.

The report should remind the negotiators that their actions have been inadequate, according to Dr Robin Lamboll.

Only 29 countries showed up with new plans at last year's Glasgow climate summit, despite being asked to prepare more ambitious targets.

A group of climate experts at Climate Action Tracker said on Thursday that even with the new pledges, world temperatures would rise more than pre-industrial levels by the end of the century.

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India is expected to be the largest contributor to the growth in emissions in 2022.

Kamya Choudhary, India policy fellow at the London School of Economics, thinks that this is a short-term measure to deal with the energy crisis.

Even though India is increasing its emissions quickly, they are still lower per person than in Europe, according to one of the report's authors.

Europe is using dirtier fossil fuels to cope with energy shortages caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The UK has asked energy firms to delay the closing of end-of-life coal plants due to Germany burning more coal this year.

Solar panels are seen at the National Thermal Power Corporation (NTPC) plant, which is primarily coal-fired, in Dadri.Image source, Prakash Singh
Image caption, India is both increasing its renewable energy and coal energy output

The UN climate expert acknowledges that the report is "bleak" but says there are reasons to be optimistic.

She said that agreements to regulate the use of fossil fuels were necessary.

There are disagreements at the UN climate summit. South Africa wants to use their gas resources while they transition to fossil-free energy sources.

The Idy Niang, head of climate change programme, Department of the Environment, said that they need to enforce their economy for development after discovering gas and oil.