Fossil fuel emissions will likely reach record highs in the next few years, putting countries further away from their goal of stopping global warming, according to researchers.
According to new data from the Global Carbon Project, this year, nations are projected to emit over 30 billion tons of carbon dioxide by burning coal, natural gas and oil for energy. That is 1 percent more than the world emitted in 2021 and slightly more than the previous record set in 2019.
At the UN climate change summit in Sharm el Sheikh, Egypt, the findings were released. Scientists warn that the world will need to stop adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere by around midcentury in order to keep global temperatures stable.
Experts say that the deadline is getting harder to hit.
Glen Peters, a research director at the Center for International Climate and Environmental Research in Norway, said that it's difficult to bring emissions back down by a certain date.
China is responsible for 32 percent of the world's fossil fuel emissions, followed by the US at 14 percent, the European Union at 8 percent and India at 8 percent.
Russia invaded Ukraine and the global economy was hit by the Pandemic this year.
China's emissions are projected to decline by roughly 0.9 percent this year, its first drop since 2016 as frequent coronaviruses and a slowdown in property development lead to dips in fossil fuel and cement use. China's once-insatiable demand for coal was flat in 2022.
Europe is expected to see emissions fall by about 0.8 percent this year, largely due to a fall in natural gas consumption. The rise in coal use was partially offset by the restart of long-dormant coal-fired power plants.
In the United States, emissions are expected to rise by 1.5 percent this year due to a surge in natural gas use. Air travel is recovering from the Pandemic lows.
Fossil fuel emissions in India are expected to increase by 6 percent, which is the largest driver of carbon dioxide growth in the world. India overtook the European Union as the world's third-largest emitter, despite its per person emissions being just one-third of Europe.
Fossil fuel emissions increased in the rest of the world. Many countries are shifting to coal in response to high natural gas prices, which is likely to cause coal emissions to hit a new high.
Is fossil fuel emissions going to go up in the years to come?
According to a recent report by the International Energy Agency, fossil fuel demand is likely to peak and then level off sometime this decade. Stronger policies have been enacted to shift away from oil, gas and coal in response to the war in Ukraine. $370 billion was approved by Congress in the United States for things like wind turbine, solar panels, nuclear power plants, hydrogen fuels, electric vehicles and electric heat pumps.
This year's rise in fossil fuel emissions would have been three times larger had it not been for the rapid deployment of wind turbine, solar panels and electric vehicles around the world.
The current crisis could be a turning point in the history of energy according to the agency's executive director.
There are some positives in the emissions data released Thursday. Over the past two decades, the yearly amount of carbon dioxide released by changes in land use has gone down to around 3.8 billion tons. The carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and land use have not changed much since 2015.
Researchers said that part of the story is that forests seem to be expanding or recovering in many regions. The trees absorb carbon dioxide from the air. That has helped offset some of the emissions that come from the destruction of trees in places like Brazil and Indonesia.
Julia Pongratz, who worked on the report, said it is too early to say if the trend is robust. It is easy to calculate how much oil, gas and coal countries are burning, but it is not easy to calculate how much carbon dioxide is released when farmers clear away rainforests or set fire to peat lands.
Under the Paris agreement, world leaders agreed to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius, compared with preindustrial levels, and to try to hold warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Scientists warn that with every additional fraction of a degree, tens of millions more people would be exposed to life threatening heat waves, food and water scarcity.
Time is running out to get to those targets. Within nine years, the world would likely put enough carbon into the atmosphere to exceed the 1.5 degree Celsius threshold, and within 30 years, the 2 degree Celsius threshold.
Pierre Friedlingstein, who helped lead the research, said that without massive cuts in emissions, we would exhaust our remaining carbon budget very quickly.
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