NASA leaves its Artemis I rocket exposed to winds above design limits

The eastern coast of Florida was hit by Hurricane Nicole early on Thursday. The strongest winds were to the north of this landfalling position because Nicole had a large eye.

Kennedy Space Center took some of the strongest wind gusts from Nicole on Wednesday and Thursday. The space agency left its Artemis I mission at Launch Complex 39B because of the winds from a Category 1 Hurricane. The stone is thrown from the ocean.

The winds were very strong. Data from NASA sensors attached to this launch pad's three lighting towers can be found on a website. It can be hard to read the readings because there are different altitudes. The area of the Space Launch System rocket where the core stage is attached to the upper stage is where most of the public data comes from. The entire stack is over 300 feet high.

NASA said its SLS rocket was designed to resist wind gusts of 74.4%. High winds that are not expected to exceed the SLS design are predicted to be the greatest risks at the pad.

The public data shows that the rocket was exposed to wind gusts over 74.4 knots for several hours on Thursday. Multiple gusts above NASA's design levels were reported on the National Weather Service website. The 74.4-knot design limit may have some margin built into it.

The space agency is wrong to say that the forecasters didn't predict Nicole's winds. Even if they were not the most likely scenario, the National Hurricane Center allowed for the possibility of winds that high even if they were not the most likely. The National Hurricane Center predicted a 15 percent chance of Hurricane-force winds near Kennedy Space Center just before NASA issued its update on the risks to Artemis I from Nicole.

What’s next

What do you think will happen now? The space agency is still aiming for a launch at 1:04 am on November 16. It's possible, but it's not likely. When it's safe for NASA employees and contractors to return to Kennedy Space Center, they'll start inspecting the vehicle.

According to Phil Metzger, an engineer who worked on the space shuttle program for NASA, the most likely concern will be the structural integrity of the rocket. Although its structure can endure intense pressure and winds in a vertical direction, it is not designed to handle the same winds in the horizontal direction.

It will be a busy couple of weeks for structural engineers to assess the risks of damage from the storm and potentially seek waivers to fly the vehicle. It will be difficult. This process will involve running and re- running structural calculations because there is no way to X-ray the structures inside the rocket. At some point, the program's leadership will have to make a decision about whether the risk is too high to fly without further checks.

Why did NASA not just return to normal? It's important that the timing is right. It takes about three days to prepare and roll the rocket back from the launch pad. The decision would have had to be made by NASA. The most likely outcome was that the rocket would be exposed to winds of 40 knots.

NASA's post on Tuesday suggests that a final decision was made on Sunday night, based on expected weather conditions and options to roll back.

The risk of damaging winds to the rocket was low from the space agency's perspective. The Artemis I mission would have been wiped out if the rocket had been rolled back at the time. The certification of the solid rocket booster lifetime, which has been in use for nearly two years, was about to end if the launch was delayed.

There were a lot of reasons for NASA to want to get the Artemis I mission off the ground. They took a gamble with the weather. It's possible they lost.

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