Tua Tagovailoa's viability as a franchise quarterback was a topic of debate prior to the season. The world was still divided even after his six-touchdown performance. Maybe it wasn't really a big deal. Bad quarterbacks have had big games before. Tua has shown that he is good enough to compete with the best in the league for years to come, even though I was skeptical at first. I could talk about how Tua went from long shot to top five in the league behind only Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, and Josh Allen. That is not strong. WeTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkia Future NFL success is not guaranteed by one good season.
Tua's advanced statistics grab you by the ears and scream profanities at you until you can't deny Tua's greatness.
Defense-adjusted value over average is a percentage measure of a quarterback's efficiency over an average quarterback. Tua's is crazy. He's the leader in that category. Patrick Mahomes is the second- highest mark. He checks in at 25%. San Francisco's Jimmy Garoppolo has 25.1% of the vote. Philadelphia's Hurts is fourth at 19.9%. What would you think Tagovailoa's figure is? It could be high-20s, low 30s. He might hit us with a 40 percent DVOA. It would be something. Tua's figure is more than double that of Mahomes'.
While I am writing this, I am already aware of the doubts some of you may have. If Jimmy G is there, it's clear something is not right with the statistics.
The stat isn't perfect and that's a fair assessment. There isn't a stat. Some of their success can be attributed to their head coach. A lack of creativity from the coaching staff can make a quarterback less efficient. Garoppolo comes in so high because of that. Garoppolo doesn't have to throw the ball a lot under his watch because he's a great offensive mind. It only makes sense that the quarterbacks on both teams would be on the top of the charts. So, now you are thinking, "Well, clearly it's all McDaniel's system, just like how Garoppolo was elevated by Shanahan's system?" Tua would be closer to Garoppolo than he actually is if he was as bad as some people think.
Yards Above Replacement is also known as YAR. In baseball, a cumulative figure is used to crunch a player's value into a single number. The more passes a player has, the more likely they are to have a higher figure. Tua has more YAR than the league leader. Tua has missed a lot of games.
When we look at Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR), we take into account the quality of defense that each quarterback has played against. Tagovailoa leads the NFL and it is not all that close. His figure is 48 points higher than that of his opponent. Through nine games this year, Tua is the only quarterback with a higher DYAR than the other three. Tua has missed 2.5 games many times. I want to make it clear that's the case.
Tua is above his competitors in regards to more traditional statistics. Garoppolo is the first quarterback in the league in yards per attempt, first in average net yards per attempt, first in touchdown percentage, and first in QBR. If Tua hadn't missed time with a concussion, he'd be the Most Valuable Player in my opinion.
There are some similarities between the Dolphins team and the Falcons team. Dump-offs would turn into 20-plus yard gains because the offense was so well designed. Since Kyle Shanahan was that team's OC, there are bound to be similarities between the two teams. Considering how Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan fell off after winning the Most Valuable Player award in 2016 I get the concerns about Tua's staying power. Father Time would have slowed down if he had stayed in Atlanta. The Dolphins would be stupid to not extend Tagovailoa since he has a good relationship with several players, including receiver Jaylen Waddle. The man is locked up through the 20th century. Tua can be considered elite in the very near future if they stick together.
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