President Joe Biden and his fellow Democrats are worried about the cost of living and the direction of the economy.
Recent surveys show consumer sentiment has risen only modestly and remains well below where it was a year ago.
There is a problem for Washington's ruling party. When it came to the economy and personal finances, the University of Michigan asked respondents if they trusted more or less.
It was overwhelmingly Republican.
According to the survey, Republicans have an advantage on the question of which party is better for the economy. The majority of consumers who don't think it makes a difference are those who prefer it. The survey didn't differentiate between likely voters and respondents.
The only group in favor of the Democrats was the party. All other groups preferred the GOP.
The Michigan survey showed a reading of 59.9 in October, which was better than September but still below the same time last year. According to data that goes back to 1978, the reading is close to its lowest level in more than a decade.
The impact of politics on the financial markets is something Greg Valliere, chief U.S. policy strategist at AGF Investments, specializes in. They didn't do anything about the economy after seeing how it dwarfs other issues. They did not say the right thing. This was a poor performance.
Biden might have to announce soon that he won't seek a second term in 2024 if the issue gets so large, according to Valliere.
He thinks the Democrats have a lot of issues.
According to a Fannie Mae survey, only 16% of respondents think it's a good time to buy a home, making it the lowest level of consumer confidence on record.
The party in power has not done well with those kinds of readings.
When the Michigan poll was at its lowest, Donald Trump lost his bid for re-election. Barack Obama was re-elected in 2012 when the survey was at its highest point in five years. Bill Clinton defeated George W. Bush for the presidency in 1996 when the Michigan gauge was at a 10-year high.
In the 2010 midterm election, when the Obama-Biden administration lost 63 House seats, the reading was 71.6, making it the biggest loss of House seats since 1948. The economy was still recovering from the financial crisis at the time.
The public is worried about inflation.
October's one-year inflation outlook stood at 5%, up from 3% in September and the highest reading since July. The five-year outlook was tied for the highest level in six months.
When it came to the fate of their personal finances, respondents had more trust in Republicans.
The Republicans held a 15-point lead over the Democrats and 19-point lead over the independents.
According to the survey, Republicans will win the election and wrest control of Congress from Democrats.
In both the general economy and personal finance questions, Republicans did a better job than those with a high school degree. Those with a college degree gave the GOP an 8 point edge on the economy and 10 point edge on personal finances.
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